The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 18 September 2009 /

Steve hopes the leaders stall in Austria as he plumps for an array of outsiders...

With no PGA Tour event this week, all my attention has been on this week's Race to Dubai event, the Austrian Open.

It's a weak looking field and given I've had three straight losing weeks, I'd kept stakes and selections to a minimum, backing just Markus Brier and Ignacio Garrido from the outset, and both have transpired to be frustrating picks.

Garrido started both rounds one and two well but couldn't sustain his efforts and although he's made the cut, he's too far back, ten shots off the lead.

Although in a better position, Brier has been even more frustrating. He was bobbing along beautifully on Thursday morning, four under par through 14 holes, but he put in a scruffy finish, dropping a shot and drifting from a low of [10.5] to a high of [46.0].

Then in round two he put in an even more infuriating effort. Playing in the afternoon, and starting his round a whooping ten shots behind leader Benn Barham - who'd earlier followed up an opening round 63 with a very solid 66, Brier made very good progress.

By the time he reached the 11th tee he'd halved the deficit, he'd shorten to [8.4] and he still had two par fives to play, but then Sky went live and the first thing I saw was the ugliest of three-putts from my man and his progress had well and truly halted.

After that bogey he made par on the 14th and hit his tee shot on the par five 15th into pole position. Lovely I thought, he's back on track, a birdie at least on the way, but then his second shot was woeful. Aiming to set up an eagle opportunity with his three wood he hit a shocker, topping the ball into the rough. A bogey followed and instead of closing on the leaders he was falling back down the leaderboard. A birdie at the last lifted my spirits a bit but not much.

So what now? My initial instinct was that current leader Benn Barham, although two clear on 13 under par and playing some superb golf, was definitely opposable. I can remember him leading the Italian Open after three rounds back in '06 before completely capitulating on the Sunday, shooting 75, dropping to a tie for 16th. But he has won a few Challenge Tour events so maybe he shouldn't be completely dismissed. I can't back him though.

Nor can I back Richard Green, two shots back and trading at less than [5.0]. He was trading a point bigger late on Friday afternoon and I was tempted, but he is far from resilient in contention.

The only other player trading in single figures is pre-event favourite Soren Hansen, who's five shots off the lead. Not an unbridgeable gap by any means, but at the price he makes little appeal.

I really wouldn't be surprised if one of those three went on to win but I don't want to back any of them, and nor would I be at all surprised if all three failed to win. For that reason, at the close of round two, I sniffed out what I felt was value on a few players sitting just off the leaders.

I've backed young Dutchman, Joost Luiten at [40.0], who's playing on a medical exemption after a serious wrist injury. Now fully recovered, Luiten will win on tour, he's a class act, and on the same score as Hansen looked value.

I've backed Martin Erlandsson at [38.0], a further shot back on seven under. I'd liked the look of Erlandsson before the off so I was keen to get him on board at a decent price. His second round was a bit disappointing but being just off the pace may suit him better.

I've also backed Brett Rumford at an average of [70.0]. He too had a disappointing second round but may benefit from being just out of the limelight, and finally I've had a few pounds on Dave Dixon at an average of [100.0].

So I've plumped for an array of outsiders, sitting just off the pace, in the hope that the leaders stall. If they don't, so be it, but I can't trust any of them and I really don't want to go taking a short price about any of them.

I'll post a review of the weekend's shenanigans on Monday.

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