The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 02 October 2009 /

Steve braces himself for gusting winds in Scotland and more disappointment in America...

After the euphoria of a couple of winning weeks I've been bought back to earth with a hefty bump this week.

I'll start my tale of woe with the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, where my main bet was Padraig Harrington and where my idea of a poor value play was Rory McIlroy - who now leads!

I very rarely back Pod, and it's fair to say I wish I hadn't this week, after a lacklustre couple of days he's now just four under par, a whopping seven shots behind young Rory on 11 under.

After I'd written my preview, and I'd seen an up to date weather forecast, I had another couple of bets before kick-off, backing Johan Edfors at [120.0] and Thongchai Jaidee at [140.0].

The reason for these additional wagers was the forecast for today, which predicted wild winds, gusting to around 40 mph. I felt, and still do, that you don't want to be playing the tough Carnoustie course or the exposed Kingsbarns in those sorts of conditions. I could be wrong but I suspect St Andrews will be by far the easiest of the three courses today and I've shaped my book accordingly.

Unfortunately, neither Edfors nor Jaidee have been brilliant, but they're still in it, albeit only just. One of my big outsiders is bang in there though - Kenneth Ferrie, backed at [480.0], plays St Andrews today and starts out just two back of the leaders.

I've also had a few in-running bets, backing joint leader Michael Hoey at [18.0], and David Dixon at an average of [55.0], who's two shots back alongside Ferrie. All my eggs are firmly placed in the St Andrews basket, though I haven't gone mad as given the extreme forecast the event could well turn into a bit of a lottery.

If I've had a poor start in Scotland, in the States I've had an atrocious one! In fact, I honestly can't remember a worse day one! Of my five selections, one withdrew after shooting a 79, three ended the day in a tie for 104th, after shooting 75s, and John Rollins fared best with a scintillating 71, which saw him end the day in a tie for 37th, just five shots off the lead!

Michael Sim was the big disappointment, making an incredible quadruple bogey seven on the par three 6th. Needless to say, he was always up against it after that but he came out fighting yesterday and when he reached eight under for the round after 14 holes, hope was rekindled. It was quickly extinguished again though, as he dropped two shots in his last four holes.

I've had just a couple of further bets so far - small plays on Aaron Price at [70.0] and Will MacKenzie at [100.0], after they'd finished their second rounds. Looking at the leaderboard as it stands now is somewhat baffling and I'm going to watch and wait tonight, and see if an opportunity presents itself. If one doesn't so be it.

This is one of those weeks where the picture isn't at all clear at the halfway stage in either event, and I'll be doing my best to keep my finger off the trigger today - things will be much clearer after 54 holes, either side of the Atlantic.

Hopefully my St Andrews theory will pay dividends, if it doesn't its going to be devilishly hard for me to have another winning week. Whatever happens I'll recap the weekends twists and turns on Monday.

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