The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 July 2008 /

The Punter tells us why his money is on Mickelson and Els to come good in Scotland and why Will MacKenzie is still a value bet on the other side of the pond.

I'd have been quite happy if the Scottish Open had ended on Thursday night. Thongchai Jaidee, backed @ [250.0], led the field and traded as short as [15.0].

He's back out to [44.0] now after a level par second round sees him two shots off the lead held by Angel Cabrera on -9.

Cabrera had threatened to get away but fortunately two late bogeys halted his progress. I say fortunately because I'd backed both Els and Mickelson @ [26.0] during the morning. They play together today trailing by five shots and I'm hoping they'll inspire each other and both go low.

If that plan fails I'm not sure I'll take any further action until Sunday's final round is well under way. Caution is advised, both Thomas Levet and Johan Edfors came from a mile back to take this title recently, so hard work studying the state of play at the head of affairs may well be time wasted.

Not that I've had a bean on him, but it's really nice to see Thomas Bjorn so high up on the leaderboard so close to the Open. His exploits in that bunker on the 16th hole at Royal St Georges in 2003 are still a painful memory for me. Heaven knows how he deals with it!

Anyway, back to this week, and at the John Deere Classic Kenny Perry is looking ominous. Two off the lead, he has to be feared. The man at the top of the leaderboard is Will MacKenzie on -13, but after turning my nose up at his starting price, I still see his price as too short now at around [3.0].

My crop of original picks has been largely disappointing. Ben Crane missed the cut and I have to now put him back on the cold list. But some of the others were as frustrating as they were disappointing. Ryan Moore and Jonathan Byrd have both slid down as many snakes as they've climbed ladders over the first two days but worst of all has to be Calcavecchia. He was six under through 11 holes on Thursday but missed the cut by four shots!

It's not often you can get [1000.0] about a player that's won within the last two years, especially in such a weak affair as this and especially when it's a player that you think you could trust when in contention. But when you come into an event in the form Will MacKenzie's been in this year it's hardly surprising to see he's been matched at some fancy prices.

Even Mystic Meg couldn't have foreseen his performance so far this week, one bogey in 36 holes is impressive and I think [7.0] is generous enough now and I've backed him accordingly.
He could well suffer from a bit of contention rust but the price is fair and I'm happy to take that risk.

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