The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 February 2010 /

It's been a profitable week for Steve as old favourite Ben Crane finally wins one, but it could so easily have been a real cracker.....

At the Qatar Masters, Robert Karlsson, who was matched before kick-off at [90.0], emerged from the wilderness to take the title in tremendous style, shooting an impressive seven under par 65 to win by three.

From even further in the wilderness, Ben Crane hung on grimly to take the Farmers Insurance open, his first title since 2005. Matched at [140.0] prior to the off, he's the third triple-figure priced winner in as many weeks on the US Tour.

My Bets

Seemingly out of the game at halfway in Qatar, I had a real chance with a round to go. In-running play, Paul Casey, backed at [25.0], had sauntered through the field on day three and started the final round a [3.4] shot in a tie for the lead with Bradley Dredge. My only other chance of success was Alvaro Quiros, backed before kick-off at [30.0]. He too had progressed nicely in round three and was just three off the lead starting out on Sunday.

I'd hoped for somewhere close to [2.0] before laying any of my Casey bet back but he never got close to that. His first deviation from par was a bogey at the third which set the tone for his whole round and he was soon out of the game.

Quiros did me proud though, and I'd have gladly settled for his five under par round before play started, but it wasn't enough. The shortest he got down to all week was [8.6], so although he finished second I didn't get a chance to lay any of my bet back on him either.

It was a frustrating result, especially as I've backed Karlsson a few times since he's come back from injury.

There was a much better outcome to the Farmers Insurance Open, but that could have been a bit better. Going into the last round I had four live chances. First to remove himself from the fray was Phil Mickelson, who bogeyed the first three holes! Closely followed by KJ Choi, who double-bogeyed the third. That left eventual winner Crane, backed at an average of [53.0] and Michael Sim, backed at an average of [45.0].

Crane drained some monstrous putts and was soon out in front and by the 9th hole I'd layed some back at [2.14]. Further lays were matched at [1.65] and then [1.28], before a three-putt bogey on the 13th put the pressure on. For much of the final round Sim was the clear danger but he couldn't quite get close enough to trade any shorter than [2.94]. I managed to lay a bit back at [3.4], but had he gone a bit lower I'd have gone plenty out of him too.

Regular readers will know I've backed Crane plenty of times and indeed, I gave him a special mention in my five to follow in 2010 piece, so it was pleasing to see him finally win one.

Player to watch

A bumbling late double bogey took the gloss of Rickie Fowler's final round, but he showed enough yesterday to suggest he won't be that long in winning. Playing with Phil Mickelson, he kept calm all day, never really in with a great chance, but always lurking. His lag putting was particularly good and showed that his game can hold up pretty well under pressure.

He may well be a bit skimpily priced in the next few weeks but he's worth keeping an eye on.

Players to Swerve

I was obviously not impressed by Casey's final round effort, which threw up a worrying stat. He has now led or been tied for the lead on the European Tour with a round to go 11 times, but he's only broken 70 once on a Sunday.

I was equally unimpressed by Lee Westwood's display - after opening his account with birdies at the first two holes he stuttered and played the next seven holes in three over. Seemingly out of the reckoning, he then rallied, but when he got to Robert Karlsson and trailed by just one with three to play he lost the plot. A bogey at the simple par 4 16th led to a tirade of expletives and left me wondering whether last year's impressive win in Dubai was a one-off. Is the wobbly Westy back?

As poor as the English pair were, the two to swerve after this week, have to be Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia. The Swede's record in Qatar is very good but his weekend performance was woeful, and his game could well be in crisis.

By the time Sergio played the 16th he was without a putter. Where it had gone I've no idea, but he's frustrated with his play at present and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he'd broken it in frustration or just thrown it in a lake! This was the second week running that the Spaniard had gone AWOL from a decent position and he, like Stenson, has to be swerved for now.

What have we learnt for next year?

Alvaro Quiros is currently undergoing swing changes with his coach Jose Rivero, and at times it showed this week. It's stating the obvious maybe, but if he's in any sort of form in 12 months time he'll be an absolute must, to say he has an eye for the course is an understatement of some size.

For in-running purposes... the 15th hole is a really tough test, but the last three holes are all very easy. This year, and last, the leaders have played the last three well and kicked clear, but there's definitely potential for some major leaderboard changes.

On to next week, where both fields look strong - Rory McIlroy will be defending his Dubai Desert Classic title, and in the States, Phil Mickelson will be going for the hat-trick at the Northern Trust Open at Riviera. I'll preview both events on Wednesday.

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