The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jimenez holds firm in Switzerland and a hot Hoff blitzes the field in Boston.....

At the 22nd time of asking, Miguel Angel Jimenez finally got to wear the red jacket reserved for the winner of the Omega European Masters, becoming the first player to win three European Tour events in the same season since Johan Edfors managed the feat in 2006.

In the States, three players traded at odds on during round four. Jason Day hit a low of [1.91], then Luke Donald was matched at [1.85) before both were blown away by pre-event [300.00] shot Charley Hoffman who made a barrage of birdies to win by five, move in to second in the FedEx Cup standings and give US Ryder Cup captain Corey Pavin a late headache - he names his four Captain's Picks today and Charley has to be at least considered now.

My Bets

Having had a few selections recently either give up winning chances or, as in the case of Brett Rumford last week, have their chance of glory cruelly denied, I layed off plenty of my potential winnings on Jimenez. Having backed him before the off at [19.0], I had already layed him at [1.72] on Saturday to cover the week's stakes but I layed him again after just three holes of his final round at [1.20], and again at [1.05] after eight holes and when he stretched his lead to six with just seven holes to play I did wonder if I'd been too cautious.

As it transpired I had, but those who dived in at [1.01] and the many who thought they were buying money at [1.02], had a real fright. Edoardo Molinari, who by this time was a slightly better result for me, birdied the 12th and the 14th as Jimenez made bogey and the gap was down to three. Then a Molinari eagle at the 15th cut the gap to just one and the unthinkable suddenly looked a distinct possibility.

Mercifully for Jimenez, he managed to get up and down from 60 yards on the par three 16th just as Molinari failed to do so from the greenside bunker and the pressure was back off.

None of my pre-event picks threatened the judge and both my halfway plays disappointed at the Deutsche Bank. Michael Sim maintained a very comfortable distance between himself and the leaders over the last two rounds and Phil Mickelson fell away poorly yesterday. He putted very well until the 16th hole of round three when he missed his first putt of the week inside eight feet and made bogey. I felt that was a monumental moment and he couldn't quite get close enough to threaten after that, with his challenge finally dying on the 10th hole yesterday when he hit two balls out of bounds on his way to a triple-bogey seven.

I didn't have another bet after halfway, which was a good job because the two that tempted me before the final round were leader Jason Day at just under [3.0] and Geoff Ogilvy at [32.0].

Players to swerve

Matteo Manassero looks like he's going to be the real deal, if he isn't already, and he should go on to win plenty of titles and maybe even a major or two but we may have to wait a while yet.

Crabbing his third placed finish on Sunday is picky in the extreme I know, but he did stop-start a bit - when he got too near to the lead the brakes went on and then when he dropped back a bit he free-wheeled again but my alarm bells tinkled when I noticed his finish to the Rolex Trophy a month ago on the Challenge Tour when he gave up a three-shot lead with a round to go - being the only player in the top 10 not to break 70.

He's an immense talent and the TV guys understandably love him but that will ultimately result in the market loving him too and it has to be remembered he hasn't a pro win anywhere on any Tour yet and he may well be worth swerving for a while, or even taking on at short odds when in-contention.

Brandt Snedeker was yet again very poor in-contention and remains one to avoid. He will win more tournaments; he's too good a putter not to, but five or six shots off the lead on a Sunday with a juicy price might be the best time to back him.

Luke Donald's back nine left quite a bit to be desired again and those who took the odds on about him must be pulling their hair out. He's simply not one to be trusted.

What have we learnt for next year?

Being up with the pace at the Omega European Masters is essential. In the last 13 years, the furthest back any winner has come from at the halfway stage is just three shots. Rory McIlroy failed to hold a four-shot final day lead three years ago (another example of how hard it is to convert your first win) but the majority of third round leaders convert - it's hard to pass the weekend leaders here and if you're betting in-running don't look too far down the leaderboard.

The KLM Open returns to Hilversumsche on Thursday, scene of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano's first win five years ago and in the States the FedEx Cup series moves onto Illinois for the BMW Championship and I'll be back tomorrow to preview both events.

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