The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 19 March 2012 /

Luke Donald wins a four-man playoff to return to the number one spot and there's yet another shock winner in Europe but how did The Punter fare, and what have we learnt for next year?

Pre-event [350.0] shot, Julien Quesne, shot a course record equalling final round 64 at the Open de Andalucía to become the latest almost impossible to pick winner on the Race to Dubai. The 31 year-old Frenchman is the 400th different winner of a European Tour event.

Over in the States, at The Transitions Championship, Luke Donald returned to the top of the world rankings after he beat off Jim Furyk, Robert Garrigus and Sang-Moon Bae with a birdie at the first extra hole in the events first ever playoff.

My Bets
After a poor little run on the golf and a dreadful Cheltenham, it was nice to make a profit this week. Having been a bit preoccupied with the festival, I didn't get too involved with either event before the off and it worked out quite well.

The Open de Andalucía had looked a tricky puzzle from the outset and as the event progressed it didn't get any easier. Thankfully, I didn't get too involved and my only in-running wager was a very modest one on Hennie Otto during round four.

My sole pick at the Transitions, Jonathan Byrd, was a disappointment and my first in-running play, Kenny Perry, much the same but my two selections with around to go, as detailed in the In-Play Blog, on Jim Furyk and Ernie Els worked out well, even though neither man triumphed in the end.

Furyk did pretty much everything I'd expected him to do but his two under par 69 wasn't quite enough to see everyone off and I didn't get anything out of my wager on him at [4.6]. It was Els that provided me with the real opportunity to make hay...

Having backed the Big Easy at [38.0], I layed him back at [2.7] when he held a one stroke lead before he played the treacherous 16th. Ten minutes later his approach shot had finished within five feet of the pin and he looked set to go two clear. Being on a poor run I played it very cautiously, and I layed more back at [1.80] and I'm glad I did. Poor old Ernie missed the birdie putt, made a complete mess of the 17th to make bogey, before he then failed to even make the playoff when he missed from just four foot for par on the last.

Stakes were recycled on Bae and Donald at around [5.5] and Garrigus had already been covered nicely at [70.0]. When they teed off for the playoff I levelled things off roughly but left Garrigus as my biggest winner and Donald my smallest. As it transpired, that pair both gave themselves birdie opportunities from around six feet to take the title on the first extra hole but somewhat typically of my luck of late, Garrigus missed his before Donald didn't.

It was slightly disappointing not to get the best result but that's nitpicking - if I'm honest, it was just a relief to make a profit.

Player to swerve
I wouldn't be completely shocked to see Ernie play well at this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational - he's in great form and he won the event just two years ago but will he ever cross a winning line again? It was agonising watching him last night, the poor bloke's confidence just evaporated the moment he pulled his birdie putt on 16 and I really felt for him afterwards when he had to endure a Steve Sands interview last night that was insensitive at best. Ernie was clearly not in the mood for, nor ready for "Ernie what happened after that drive on the 18th hole with you?" and incredibly that was idiotically followed up with "Did you have the confidence to make that putt for four there."

I can't speak for Ernie but had he been given the option of a boot in the privates instead of the interview, he'd have probably gone for the swift kick. He looked cross and upset by the questions and you couldn't really blame him but sentiment aside, it's hard to envisage him winning again unless everything falls in place quite spectacularly. He's still a very capable player but well off the pace with a round to go could be Ernie's only chance of victory now.

Player to follow
In stark contrast to Ernie, Korea's Sang-Moon Bae confidently drilled in his six foot par putt on the 72nd hole to get into the playoff and he looks sure to win on the PGA Tour sooner rather than later. Already a multiple winner with 11 wins as a pro, Bae was the leading money winner on the Japan Golf Tour last year.

In his first season on the US Tour he's already shown he can play on both the East and West coasts and he's acclimatising himself rapidly.

What have we learnt for next year?
Although Garrigus was a factor this year, Gary Woodland took the title twelve months ago, and Bubba Watson figured in 2010, it's the steady accurate types that fare better than the big-hitters at the Transitions Championship.

It's a tricky test that favours the experienced players - yet again the leaderboard was littered with old heads. Donald might not be that old but he has an old head on young shoulders and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we don't see him take this title again. Had Furyk won, he'd have become the third two-time winner in just 12 stagings - Retief Goosen and K.J Choi have both won the title twice. So if you fancy a previous winner in 2013, don't be afraid to back them.

I'll be back tomorrow, or on Wednesday, with previews for this week's two events, the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco on the Race to Dubai and the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour.

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