The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 March 2010 / 2

It's a rattled crossbar and a shook post, as Hunter Mahan blasts through the field to leave our man feeling sick...

I said in Tuesday's preview that I could end up feeling sick at the end of the week and unfortunately, that's exactly how I feel. Hunter Mahan, who was a [75.0] pre-event chance, and was matched in-running at [490.00], before starting the final round at around [28.0], blasted through the field to win the WM Phoenix Open by a single shot, denying me a bumper pay-out....

My Bets

I had plenty of chances going into the weekend but after Saturday's third round my only realistic hope was Rickie Fowler, backed pre-event at [110.00]. Mark Wilson, backed at a huge [350.0], had shared the halfway lead but after birdying the seventh he made three bogeys in five holes and was never a threat after that.

Last week's winner, Ian Poulter threatened to make a run at the leaders yesterday and I backed him at [60.0], after he'd birdied holes three and four, but his run petered out on the back nine. However, there was better to come from another in-running wager...

Y E Yang had started the day fully six shots back, and after shooting just one under par on the front nine, he was hardly a threat, but when he holed out from a fairway bunker to make eagle on the 10th it was a different story.

I was fortunate enough to scramble aboard at [70.0], and as he continued to progress, with birdies at the next four holes, I topped up at [38.0] and again at [11.0]. By the time he reached the 16th tee he was trading at odds on, hitting a low of [1.71], and the only realistic danger looked to be my man, Rickie Fowler. I was in a cracking position and felt sure I was about to collect a handsome sum.

But then Yang narrowly failed to birdie the 16th, just as Hunter Mahan stiffed his second shot on the par five 13th to within nine feet of the hole. I didn't hang about and I layed some yang back at [2.04]. It was a smart move, as moments later he hit his drive into the water on the 17th and Mahan converted for eagle!

Playing in the penultimate group, a couple behind Mahan, Rickie fowler birdied the 14th to tie Mahan just as he was messing up the reachable par five 15th (narrowly avoiding the water with his second shot) and I layed Fowler back at [2.04].

Mahan failed to birdie 15 and Fowler hit a perfect drive there and went odds on - to a low of [1.86]. I was confident of success again but I wasn't going to rely on it, and I backed Mahan at [2.54] to guarantee a nice profit whatever the result. I'm glad I did!

Mahan birdied 16, just as Fowler inexplicably layed up from 240 yards on 15! An unforgivable decision, especially when you consider that they were playing preferred lies! Would he have layed up on a 240 yard par three? Of course he wouldn't, and you have to question whether having an old school mate caddy for him is sensible now; surely a wiser old bag-rat would have convinced him to show more guts.

Anyway, the decision cost me dearly, as he could only make par and went on to lose by one.

When three players trade at odds on and you've got two of them for a bumper pay-out, you've every right to feel aggrieved when the other one wins! I'd rattled the crossbar and shook a post but I'd not collected the big money and it took me some time to nod off last night. Truth be told, that sick feeling's still not quite gone!

Players to watch

Y E Yang is a multiple winner with a major in the bag but he is still consistently underestimated by the market. He defends his Honda title this week so will be short enough (defending champs always are) and may well be worth passing over, but after that, he's surely one to keep in mind.

Player to swerve

Zach Johnson is disappointing with increasing regularity. He's recently given up great chances to win at the Chevron Challenge, the Hawaii Open and now this event and I have to conclude that he's far from the safe conveyance I once thought him to be.

I also must mention this week's winner. I'm by no means a fan of Mahan's and feel he's very often way too short. It could be considered churlish or pocket-talking to crab someone who's shot a pair of bogey-free 65's on the weekend to win, but he was far from convincing once he hit the front, and was very lucky to stay dry on both 15 and 18. Coming from off the pace certainly suited him but he'll be plenty short enough going forward and is one to be wary off still.

What have we learnt for next Year?

Holes 11 and 12 are really tough but I noticed that yesterday's in-play market didn't really reflect that this year, and the last four holes aren't the dollys you might think for players in the heat of battle. Fowler and Yang played them in level par and Mahan shot one under, thanks to his birdie at 16. Interestingly, they all birdied the 14th.

To simplify, if you're betting in-running next year, it may pay to let your selection get through the 12th before you strike.

The Race to Dubai is back up and running next week with the Malaysian Open, while in the States it's the Honda Classic. I'll preview both events on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(2)

1. Paul Bloodworth | 02 March 2010

   Hi Steve,

   I really enjoy your overviews, in runnings and summation at the end. Very stiff at the Phoenix - what was he doing laying up?

   Anyway I am a regular punter on golf but in no way as sophisticated fashion as you - simply don't have time to follow it as closely. I was wondering though how you do your form? Do you go through every player in a tournament and check their records in that tournament/course? And what website do you use to do this, or do you have your own database?

   Any help you could provide would be great as I would like to do more form than I currently do.

   Cheers and keep up the good tipping!!

   Paul Bloodworth
   Melbourne Australia

2. Steven Rawlings | 03 March 2010

   Hi Paul,
   Thanks for the feedback, as always, it’s really appreciated. And thanks for the sympathetic tone re Phoenix, that was a tough one to take for sure.
   As for Fowler laying up...2010 is turning into the year of the lay up! He’s just the latest in a lengthening line of players who have shown far too much caution when a chance of glory has presented itself. Why? There are plenty of theories... too much money for2nd? Caddy influence? Or maybe it’s just coincidence?
   Anyway, re your questions on research, I have to confess that the vast majority of the knowledge used is situated between my ears, gleaned from hours and hours of painstaking viewing, but I do keep some very basic notes on players.
   Week on week I tend to look at the course first and get a feel for what sort of player will be best suited. Past results will nearly always indicate which skill-set best matches the venue, whether it’s driving distance, accuracy, GIR or putting etc. I then go through the field in as much detail as time permits. I use a few websites, but by far the best is Tour-Tips.com. It is a subscription site, but all the statically information you’ll ever need is there, and I feel its well worth the money. They have a few different rates and none of them are too expensive.
   I hope my reply has been of some use and good luck with your bets.
   Regards
   Steve
   

:

:

:

?

: