The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 18 October 2008 /

Catch up with The Punter's progress in the Portugal Masters and Shriners Open betting...

Things are going quite well at the Portugal Masters, with both my pre-event picks in the shake up.

The leader after two rounds is Mountain Ash's Stuart Manley but it's very hard to envisage the pre-event [1000.0] chance holding on. When interviewed after his round yesterday he spoke about how nervous he was and given he's languishing down at 174th on the order of merit logic would suggest he'll struggle in the final pairing today.

Playing with Manley is my outside pick, Alvaro Quiros, who has picked up where he left off last week. He complained that his putting isn't as good as it should be, which is a worry, but he's relaxed and the rest of his game seems in good order so I just hope he can keep going.

The current favourite is Robert Karlsson, my other pre-event pick, who's three off the lead and playing menacingly well but I have my reservations about him.

Not only is he going for three wins in a row but a victory here would also virtually seal up the Order of Merit. When asked whether he would swap two titles for the OOM he couldn't answer and it's not helping his cause to be repeatedly asked these questions by the media. I have a nagging suspicion that the pressure might just get to him and bizarrely I'd rather see him a couple of shots back after today's round. Hopefully of Quiros!

I've had three in-running bets as well. Firstly Marcel Siem, who I'd also backed at the start last week before he withdrew for some reason. I took [130.0] about him on Thursday after he'd birdied three of his first five holes and I also backed Marc Warren at [55.0] after he'd reached four under after day one. Both look well out of it now though.

I did get some cracking value late on yesterday though when I took [38.0] about Martin Kaymer after he'd birdied the 17th hole. The price was a mile out, he was five off the lead at the time and just one shot behind Ross Fisher yet was trading at over three times his price.

As a real bonus he went and birdied the last too and is a serious contender now. He opened up last year with the course record here, shooting 61. But he couldn't better 69 over the last three rounds. After opening with a 72 this year could he shoot three low ones? If he matches yesterday's 65 a couple of times over the weekend he'll take some beating and I think he's still the value in the field right now.

The comedy moment this week was provided by marshal Graham Finch who managed to fall in the lake by the 7th hole, "I'd been watching drives and had taken a few backward steps when suddenly I did the splits and went down into the lake. It was like going down a children's slide." A fellow marshal also went in trying to help him out and they were both eventually rescued by a spectator with a brolly. What is it about water and Finch's? Remember Richard Finch's dunking at the Irish Open back in May? And who was playing the hole at the time yesterday, only the most famous aquatic golfer of them all, Jean Van de Velde.

Over the pond the scoring is almost ridiculous. Sharing the lead on a staggering -18 are Matt Kucher, winner of the 2002 Honda Classic and rookie Marc Turnesa, who should have lost his cherry at the Viking Classic last month but threw the event away with a double bogey at the 71st hole with the title at his mercy.

Just one back is last week's winner Zach Johnson and he looks by far the likeliest winner at this stage.

The best of my picks is Ryan Moore but he's four of the lead.

I haven't got too involved here and I'm happy to keep it like that for now. Although I see Johnson as the likeliest winner I'm not in a rush to back him at around [3.0], knowing that if he goes three holes without making a birdie he could get lapped!

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