The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 11 March 2009 /

With fine form figures for both tournament and course, Tiger Woods is a strong contender to pick up his first title since returning from injury in Miami this weekend. However, there have to be question marks about anyone playing their first stroke-play event in nine months, says the Punter.

The main action this week is the second World Golf Championship event of the year, the CA Championship, and one player's record stands head and shoulders over everyone else's. Tiger Woods has won six of the nine so far staged.

Until 2007 the CA Championship was a nomadic event, staged in America and Europe alternatively but it's now played each year at the Doral Golf Resort & Spa in Miami, which was previously the home of the Ford Championship.

Woods also had a 66% strike rate in that event, winning the last two renewals in '05 & '06; he'd put up a dreadful effort on debut in 2002 though, finishing second.
So his form figures for this event read 1-5-1-1-9-1-1-1-5 and his form figures for this course read 2-1-1-5.

Given the above, I was happy to take [2.0] about him last year, especially as he was coming into the event on a run of something like five straight wins, if memory serves, but he putted woefully and in the end lost by two from Geoff Ogilvy.

So what about his chances this year? Nobody can argue with his previous course and event form but there has to be a question mark about anyone playing their first stroke-play event in nine months, no matter who they are. But maybe the question is how big should the question mark be? And I think the answer is - not as big as [4.7].

Many are completely dismissing his chances this week after his defeat to Tim Clark in round two of the Match Play a fortnight ago but they're breaking my first rule of golf betting. Never ever underestimate the Tiger.

Yes, his short game wasn't tight, the odd drive was wayward and he even stated that the knee needed icing but he was beat fair and square by Clark and even a fully fit Woods may have been beaten on the day.

The positives outweigh the negatives . On top of his obvious course and event form he's also now the father of a son, which often inspires mere mortals to up their performance a notch or two. Some people are sceptic of the 'nappy factor' but it works too often to be without substance. In addition, he'll be chomping at the bit, he's had another two weeks to fine tune his game and finally, let's not forget, he's the best player the world has ever seen and won the US Open with a broken leg! [4.7]? Yes please, and thanks.

Of the others, defending champ Geoff Ogilvy must have a chance but looks a tad short to me and Phil Mickelson ran Woods close here a few years back and I considered backing him but haven't.

I have backed one other though, Zach Johnson at [46.0]. I'm in danger of giving all my Hawaii winnings back by keeping faith in Zach with such regularity but [46.0] was just too big given his course form and the shape his game's in at present.

Selections:

Tiger Woods @ [4.7]
Zach Johnson @ [46.0]

The only other event this week is the Puerto Rico Open; staged for the first time last year and won by rank outsider Greg Kraft. I'd drawn up a shortlist of Rich Beem, Jeff Klauk, Jason Day, Felipe Aguilar and Aron Price but only backed Price as the others were far shorter than I was prepared to back them at. This looks a really tough event to fathom and I'm quite happy to keep the powder dry until it takes shape.

Selection:

Aron Price @ an average of [68.0]

I'll post an update on Saturday, by which time I could have a considerable amount of egg on my face if the great one fails to deliver.

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