The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

"Innocent when you dream," sang Tom Waits. Not so for the Punter - when he goes to bed the world changes and he wakes up scolding himself for meddling with his bets.

When I got up yesterday morning , I found that all my picks were doing ok.

It was early days but Lonard, Sorenstam and Wiratchant all featured among the leaders in their events and in South Africa Chris Wood and Marc Cayeux had started well.

As the morning progressed, my picks slipped back a bit but it wasn't been a disaster by any means. Before I went to bed last night I traded the leader in the Australian Open, Stephen Dartnell. A qualifier who was unknown to me before the event, he'd looked too big at [15.0] with a four shot lead halfway through his round and so it proved - he made no further ground but I was able to lay some back for a free bet on him.

I also layed back half of my Lonard bet when he looked in trouble but when I got up this morning he'd recovered well and I was scolding myself for meddling and then going to bed.

But on reflection I'm now making a profit whoever wins the event and I've two players in the shake up for good money. Maybe I shouldn't be so hard on myself. The second round hasn't been completed yet; poor weather caused a suspension and probably did the late starters a favour.

After two rounds in Cambodia, my pick Thaworn Wiratchant is just about in with a chance, though his two under par second round leaves him five shots off leader Chawalit Plaphol while Thonchai Jaidee looks the big danger at one off the lead.

Better news at the Dubai Ladies Masters where Annika Sorenstam is starting to show her class and has eased to the lead after two rounds and is now looking like my best chance of a winner this week.

Overnight rain left the Leopard Creek course pretty defenceless and low scores were the order of the day. Richard Sterne got in to contention, despite doing an Ernie Els and taking eight on the 18th, as did Schwartzel and Johan Edfors, all players who reached the shortlist but weren't backed.

The best of the four I did back is Marc Cayeux, backed at [420.0] and only two off the lead held by, rookie Oskar Henningsson, US veteran Len Mattiace and Robert Rock on -11. My other three picks all made the cut comfortably but need to go snake's belly low to figure in the shake up come Sunday.

So what now? Well we've been here a few times; Robert Rock with the lead on a Saturday usually produces the same result. A dreadful third round in the high 70's to put the talented Englishman out of the reckoning and you have to expect that again really but he does play well here. Maybe this is the week he finally kicks on instead of bombing out. He'll be doing it without my cash if he does though.

Nobody's going to carry any of my cash at this stage, with hardly a fag paper between a whole host of players, three of which I quite fancied beforehand, I'm going to see how the third round develops before I make my move. I like Sterne and Schwartzel best but will wait to see how tomorrow develops.

Edfors may be of interest if he's a few back on Sunday. He performs far better when off the pace and all his wins have come from behind. If he's three or four shots back he could be worth a few bob.

Finally, this year's wildlife story at Leopard Creek was the disturbing tale of a leopard emerging from a tree by the 10th to tackle a baboon. Not sure you could fully relax playing a leisurely round here, especially if you teed off slightly late and you were finishing up at dusk!

As usual, I'll post a full round up of the weekends developments on Monday.

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