The Punter: Johnson and Casey are both worthy winners but I know which one I trust

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 19 January 2009 / Leave a comment

It's not been a bad week for Steve in his golf betting with Zach Johnson underlining his steely resolve when in the mix.

I stayed up for the third round of the Sony Open in Hawaii on Saturday night, shepherding my Zach Johnson wager. He played very well and took the outright lead when he birdied the 12th. Then when he failed to birdie the par-5 18th but still held the lead, I put up a lay of [3.20] and went to bed.

Overnight in the Abu Dhabi market Casey had shortened and Kaymer had lengthened, quite markedly, and as they played the first hole I couldn't resist a modest lay of Casey at [1.24]. Hardly the right move given my book but I felt it just had to be done with a whole round to play, but an immaculate start from Casey with birdies at the first two holes saw his price contract further and when he extended his lead to six after ten holes he was matched at [1.01].

Following my switch from Casey to Kaymer on Saturday I was left feeling bored, depressed and frustrated, all at the same time.

Casey then drove into the rough on the 11th hole and I layed him again at [1.02]. I've seen a few complete meltdowns in my time, Els at Leopard Creek a recent example, and Paul's never been one to trust implicitly.

Four holes later and three dropped shots later it looked a wise move. Unfortunately Kaymer completely failed to cash in; needing two lengthy par saves himself just to keep tabs.

It was Louis Oosthuizen who almost bridged the gap, after birdieing the last the young South African was just a shot behind and when Casey drove into the rough again on the 16th the almost unimaginable was becoming a distinct possibility.

He'd wobbled, no doubt, but credit to Casey he straightened himself up to make par to take the title by a stroke from Oosthuizen and Kaymer - who had eagled the last just to irritate me further. Not that I saw it live, Sky inexplicably switched channels, which meant a lapse of coverage for a crucial ten minutes just as the event they'd covered for four days concluded!

Casey's wobble was apparently down to camera clicks and the something wrong with the greens according to him but I'm not sure I believe him personally.

It wasn't a great result, but not a disaster either. Casey's win meant a modest loss but on reflection I didn't do too much wrong. That long birdie putt on the 10th on Saturday was the killer.

A lovely roast lamb dinner and a four hour kip was the ideal preparation for another late night Zach-monitoring session and the first thing I did was back Saturday night's lay back at [3.90], just before he teed off. Big danger Ogilvy had double bogeyed the first and I couldn't understand why Johnson was so big. A birdie at the first was just the ticket and I layed him back again at [2.70] straight away.

Another lay, this time after five holes at [1.68] just as Zach looked like he may take control and again it was the right thing to do. He didn't do much wrong but when he bogeyed the 7th and those ahead were birdying at will it was all a bit jittery and I was starting to think it was going to be a frustrating week.

The challengers kept coming and the cream rose to the top, Adam Scott, Charles Howell III and David Toms all traded in single figures and had every chance but Johnson was extremely impressive, never flinching despite the challenges. He went from three clear to level but stretched away again at the end to win by two and he now goes on the rock solid 'in the mix list' after this.

It had been far from stress-free and I'd layed a bit more back at an average of [1.12] by the end but it had been a cracking win.

I'd been very confident of Zach, describing him in my preview as my big fancy for the week and I'd backed him accordingly. Sometimes you go through the field and one just jumps right out at you and that was the case this week.

But just to counter that, I'll put my trumpet down for a second and remind myself of what I also wrote on Wednesday, this time about the Abu Dhabi Championship - 'course form doesn't seem massively important'. Yeah right, first and second in the event were the winners in 2007 and 2008! And if that's not bad enough what about last Monday's pearl of wisdom - 'Picking the bones out of the aftermath, the shock really has to be Goosen; he had a dreadful day and can't be trusted anymore. And who won the African Open this week on the Sunshine Tour?

Looking forward to the first major in April though, all three of this weekend's winners have form aplenty around Augusta National but I know which one I'd trust with nine to play if they were tied, he wouldn't be English or South African and he already owns a green jacket. But what do I know?

Anyway, it's the 50th Bob Hope Classic next week on the USPGA, which starts on Wednesday because it's played over five rounds and in the Race to Dubai it's the Qatar Masters and I'll preview the two events on Wednesday.