The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 April 2009 /

The Punter looks on in horror as the dream of a monster win dies and Paul Lawrie loses the plot. Then, in an attempt to spare himself more indignity, he switches off and ends up missing a certain Irishman's first win.

Having gone into the weekend with five of my original picks in the top 14, I was perfectly happy with my lot after Saturday's third round at the Estoril Open.

Three of the five had drifted away but Paul Lawrie was still on the premises on five under par and Paul Broadhurst, backed at [120.0] and [230.0] ended the day as the third round leader, two shots better than Lawrie.

On Saturday evening I put in a substantial lay of Broady at [4.7] and left it there overnight but when I looked in at about 10:00 yesterday morning it hadn't been matched and I had to have a rethink. Plenty had been matched at [5.0] but I wasn't happy to lay quite that big. Maybe I was being a bit greedy but I'd gone through the leaderboard with a fine-tooth comb and was struggling to see any of his closest pursuers troubling him and, besides, I had Lawrie as an insurance policy of sorts. So after much deliberation I decided I wouldn't offer bigger and if it hadn't been matched by the time he started I'd take the lay down.

It didn't get matched and I never saw close to [5.0] again. Poor ole Broady started nervously and by the time he'd played five holes he was three over par for his round and the dream of a monster win was rapidly dying.

Paul Lawrie started ok though and was still very much in it until he reached the ninth and then he too lost the plot, making a pair of bogeys, swearing and moaning about the greens and generally showing why he doesn't win anymore.

It was painful to watch and to make it worse it looked like Fernandez-Castano was going to take the title. Gonzo's one of my favourite players and someone I'd looked at closely before play started yesterday, with a view to backing at around [28.0], but I'd decided to leave him alone.

When Broadhurst failed to birdie the 17th and went to the last hole two behind Gonzo and Michael Hoey, who were safely in the clubhouse, I switched off. I'd seen enough and certainly didn't want to watch Gonzo take the title without me being on.

As it happened, if I had put myself through it I would have seen Hoey win his first ever event at the third play-off hole.

Things weren't much better at the Shell Houston Open, with all my original picks out of it; I'd backed Justin Leonard at [32.0] before play started yesterday. He had six holes of his third round left to play and was two off the lead but when he restarted he was pretty hopeless and was soon yet another lost cause.

There was an odd feel to the event as there'd been no re-draw after round three because of the weather delays. I'd just about had enough of golf for one week but felt an opportunity might well surface so I monitored play for a while and it wasn't long before my chance came.

J B Holmes was still a shot off the lead, held by Freddy Couples and was in a tie for second with a couple of others but as he pared the 17th hole I backed him at [12.0], taking the view that with the wind blowing hard and given the tough finish to the course he would be in a very strong position if he could par the very tough 18th, which fortunately, thanks to a 14 foot putt, he did.

Couples fell away, somewhat predictably, and so did everyone else except for Paul Casey, who annoyingly kept making lengthy par saves and when he bogeyed the last, over two hours after Holmes had played the hole, the pair were set for a play-off.

After drawing lots, it was my guy Holmes that drove first and just to top what had been a most dreadful day, he hit it straight into the water and that was that. Casey tentatively bogeyed the hole but it was enough to win.

Holmes had been matched as low as [1.8], while he sat in the clubhouse waiting, but I hadn't layed anything back.

With the benefit of hindsight, it was a week where I went for too much. But then again, I'd assessed Broadhurst's closest challengers and felt none were a serious threat. The final 1-2-3 came from at least as far back as tied 11th on the last day and a level par round would have got him into the play-off.

Anyway, thankfully it's the Masters next week - there's something really special to look forward to - and I can put this whole sorry week behind me. I'll post a preview on Wednesday.

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