The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 04 October 2008 /

Markus Brier, the Punter's pre-event [350.00] pick, holds the lead at Carnoustie but this year's Open Champion is likely to be in contention on the final afternoon.

Knowing how long the Dunhill Links takes to unravel I didn't even bother to log on to the PC on Thursday. But after watching the snail pace of play for over two hours on Sky and still not having a clue how my main picks, Ernie Els and Henrik Stenson, were doing and having completely given up on them showing an ABC ticker of all the scores I eventually decided to switch the log on.

On doing so I discovered that my Els' bet was already a loser and that my Stenson wager was faring only marginally better. Some solace came from outsiders Marc Warren and Markus Brier who were snapping at the leader's heels but it was a pretty dire start.

As poor as things went in Scotland on Thursday, it didn't compare to how appallingly my picks had done over the pond. I can't remember a worse start than I had at the Turning Stone Championship, where the best of my picks was Parker McLachlin - over par and six shots off the lead!

Having looked at the bleak state of affairs in the cold light of yesterday morning I added to my US portfolio by backing Mark Hensby at [100.0]. Hensby's a player I've backed a few times over the years. He's one of those players who doesn't figure for ages and then suddenly pops up with a drastically improved performance and being only three off the lead he shouldn't have been such a big price.

At the Dunhill Links yesterday it was a watching brief until halfway through the days play when I re-entered the fray with Germany's Martin Kaymer at [13.0] as he completed his second round. I'm a massive fan of young Kaymer and I'm convinced he's going to be a massive star in the future. I'd very nearly backed him earlier in the day at virtually half the price but hadn't. A few late bogeys in what were pretty poor conditions meant he took a walk in the market and he was a far more attractive proposition.

The decent finishes of Robert Karlsson and Padraig Harrington, after the bet was struck, meant that the price taken doesn't look too sensational now. Harrington in particular looks menacingly poised on -5, only three off the lead and it's not hard to envisage him contending tomorrow afternoon.

Currently holding that lead is Markus Brier, who was one of my pre-event picks at [350.0]. I won't hold my breath but it's a pleasing enough start and it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if he kept his nose in front so here's hoping.

At the Turning Stone Resort Championship yesterday, where one or two players still have round two to complete, Mark Hensby justified my faith in him by shooting a three under par round of 69, leaving him just three shots off leader Jeff Overton.

I'm not a massive fan of the clearly talented Overton, as I've only ever seen him shirk the issue so far. Tag Ridding, a shot back in 2nd hasn't been sighted in this loftier position in many a moon and he's always been an off the pace performer so I'm prepared to pass him over too.

Highly promising Australian Jason Day is just two back of Overton in 3rd, thanks in part to a hole in one at the sixth. He could go either way and might be a bit of value at a double figure price but I think the dangers are alongside my pick rather than in front of him.

Robert Allenby, also on -5, had been favourite before the event started and although he hasn't won in years he's perfectly capable. As is Charles Howell III, also on -5 but I'm quite happy with Hensby at this stage and have gone in again at [24.0] this morning, which is twice the price he should be.

The last time Hensby was in this sort of position was at the Frys.com this time last year and the market underestimated him then too. He played well over the weekend but was edged out of it by Mike Weir by the narrowest of margins.

I'll review both events on Monday when hopefully I'll be waxing lyrically on how I dug out a [350.0] winner!

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