The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 21 March 2009 /

After a period of profit, the Punter, eternal optimist that he is, is expecting his luck to change for the worse. So how are his picks faring in the Madeira and the Transition? And what was Kenny Perry doing up until 1:30 on Friday morning?

I've had a good run, in fact I've had an excellent run, winning in each of the last five weeks, so I knew sooner rather than later I was going to crash and burn. The insurers have been called and the extinguishers are at the ready.

Let's start with the Madeira Islands Open where there are a couple of minor positives. The first being that I only backed two players from the start and the second being that I failed in my attempts to back Paul Broadhurst after round one.

On Thursday evening I'd placed an ambitious back in the market for Broady at [38.0] but only got a little of it matched overnight. He teed off early yesterday and when he birdied the second I was cursing not having taken the [36.0]. Cross with myself, I just cancelled the bet.

It turned out to be the right move because he eventually shot one over and I've now taken a small interest in him at [75.0]. He looks a little detached, being seven shots off the lead, but it really isn't the strongest leaderboard and anyway, I'm at a loss as to what else to do.
A bunch of six players have put daylight between themselves and the field now, the highest profiled of which is Damien McGrane.

If I had to pick a winner from here I'd just about go for current leader Michael Hoey but if I'm honest I haven't got much to back that up. He's just turned 30 and that can sometimes be a massive incentive for a player to take their career to the next level but it's not enough of a pointer to make me part with any cash.

My initial picks, Chris Wood and Daniel Vancsik, both missed the cut by several strokes and the least said about their efforts the better. So my only hope now is ole Broady and I'm not exactly confident.

Over in the USA, I didn't have a bad first day, Stephen Ames, who was backed at [95.0], ended the day one shot off leader Jim Furyk, with Ben Crane, another initial pick, just a couple of shots further back. The only fly in the ointment looked to be Kenny Perry, who I very nearly backed before the off. After an opening four under par round he was bang there too and he still had his morning round to come.

Thankfully I resisted the temptation to back Perry after round one because he started terribly yesterday and was five over par for his first six holes. Apparently he'd been up until 1.30 watching basketball!

If that was bad, there was even worse to come from overnight leader Jim Furyk who, after being matched at as low as [3.0], only just made the cut after shooting seven over par!

Unfortunately my glee at Perry and Furyk's woes was short-lived as both Ames and Crane also struggled and dropped away tamely.

On top of my poor looking initial picks I've added to the portfolio - none too successfully. On Thursday I threw a few pounds at Matt Bettencourt at [250.00], when he got to -3, but he soon went on a bogey spree and then last night I backed Heath Slocum during his second round at [80.0], just before he made bogey.

I also backed Steve Flesch last night at [100.0], which looked big enough given he's only two off the lead.

Looking at the leaderboard now it looks a real puzzle. Last week's runner -up, Nick Watney, may be the answer but I'm too wary of last week's exploits taking their toll to take the plunge. I can't really trust anyone in the top ten but was tempted by Trevor Immelman, who's in a tie for 11th and is two off the lead. He looks to have finally found something, but I'll see how he starts tonight before investing; it's been so long since he showed any sort of form, caution is definitely the watchword.

So I go into the weekend with very few live chances and hardly any idea of which way to turn next. It's fair to say I'm not confident of another winning week, but you never know, the first rule of golf betting is to expect the unexpected.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: