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The Punter: Even on his home course I just can't trust Sergio

The Punter RSS / / 25 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

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The Punter updates us on his pick's progress at the halfway point of the Castello Masters and Frys.com Open...

At the Castello Masters, being drawn with a morning tee time on day one proved to be a distinct advantage. Best of those with an un-favoured draw is last week's winner and one of my selections again this week, Alvaro Quiros. He's still in incredibly good form and could have scored a lot better, he missed quite a few short putts but is still in with a great chance, just two shots off the lead.

There's a three way tie for the lead between Denmark's Soren Kjeldsen, home boy Sergio Garcia and England's Richard Finch.

I jumped the gun somewhat yesterday and backed Finch at just about the worst price he's been, [7.6], as he was about to birdie the 10th hole. I'm not a massive fan and find him very hard to catch right but at the time the bet was struck I felt there was a danger he could just slip the field. As it was he frustrated yet again, limping back to the clubhouse with a couple of bogeys. He may well kick on again but I'd be surprised if he did.

I would avoid fellow leader Kjeldsen like the plague so I guess that makes Sergio, on his home course and in decent form, a solid proposition but I can't have him at [2.50]. I just can't trust him.

I'm quite happy with Quiros' position right now and I'm still fairly confident he can win.
Of my other original picks, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano is plodding along on -5 alongside my other main pick Jeev Milkh Singh. Things could have been much better for Singh. Hindered by a poor draw he managed to handicap himself further by making a triple bogey at his very first hole, it's been a long slog back since then.

In short, Garcia could well dot up but it will be without my cash, and if he hits odds on early today I may even take him on. I'm still confident his compatriot Quiros could win back to back.

In the US my main pick Ryan Moore flew out of the traps and birdied his first two holes on Thursday morning but that was as good as it got. He slowly dropped back and continued the poor play yesterday to miss the cut.

Of my other picks, the change of putter didn't have the desired effect on Peter Lonard's game and the hunch about Steve Flesch was misguided.

I have had one in running bet though and it's worked out quite well so far. I took [28.0] about Arron Oberholser at the end of day one, when he was two shots off the lead.
To say Oberholser's suffered with injuries doesn't do his tale of woe justice. Winner of the AT & T Pro-Am in 2006 he's been plagued with injuries just about ever since, suffering back and wrist injuries and going under the knife a couple of times. Last October he had surgery to remove a loose bone fragment in his left hand and he's just returning after more hand surgery for a bone spur but after yesterday's six under par round, which gave him the lead. I was delighted to read that he 'had zero pain and no issues'.

I thought Oberholser had gotten himself another most peculiar ailment listening to the event coverage late last night on satellite radio when the commentator ran through his long list of ailments but it was merely an embarrassing mistake. He meant to say 'bulging disc' but with a slip of the tongue disc became dick! If it had been TV coverage it would have been a certainty for a bloopers programme.

Anyway, he's a class act and may well take some passing, especially if he can avoid any over excitement!

On a serious note, one man who might get passed him is Sean O'Hair, four back on -7, I'm still keeping a close eye on him.

Kevin Stadler's futile attempt to make the cut is worth a mention. He failed by a couple of strokes but improved his score from Thursday to Friday by an incredible twenty shots, following Friday's grotesque 81 with a sublime 61 yesterday.

As always I'll review both events on Monday.

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