The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 17 January 2009 /

As Paul Casey puts himself in a strong position at the Abu Dhabi Championship, The Punter finds that he shares more in common with America's outgoing President than he had previously imagined...

After two days of the Abu Dhabi Championship and with a few players left to complete round two, following Thursday's delay for frost, all my picks were safely negotiating the cut. Two or three were too far back but Francesco Molinari and Johan Edfors were handily placed.

When the third round got underway, Robert Allenby briefly made a charge and Edfors started with a couple of birdies but I felt their efforts weren't going to be sustained and looked elsewhere for a likely winner.

Before the TV coverage started the live radio on the European Tour website afforded a chance to get ahead and I was lucky enough to snap up some decent value about Paul Casey, backing him at various prices to build up a decent bet at an average of [5.5] by the time he made the turn.

But following a poor drive at the ninth, he made another on the par five 10th, then chopped out of the desert and in to the rough and it looked as if the wheel nuts maybe loosening and I layed him back at [4.0] and switched to the charging Martin Kaymer at [5.0].

After making the green with his third shot, Casey drained his birdie putt from about 50 feet and his price plunged back to [3.0].

So having written in my preview that course form wasn't the be all and end all, here I was switching from the 2007 winner to the 2008 winner, and all at seemingly the wrong time!
The whole thing reminded me of a cracking Bushism I'd read in the week - "I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them."

The birdie on the 10th seemed to refresh Casey and he then birdied two of the next three as Kaymer's run stalled. I reached for some comfort chocolate but it just made me feel even sicker!

Things got better for a while when Casey suspended his birdie barrage and Kaymer birdied the last two holes to get within two but then Casey matched his feat and will take a four shot lead into tomorrow's final round.

Of my original picks, Molinari managed to shoot a very poor 71. Edfors kept boxing on but, although as high as tied fifth on the leaderboard, he's now seven shots behind Casey.

It's not the end of the world; a Casey win would mean a small loss, Kaymer and Edfors a very good win and the field a hefty loss. I could level things off a bit and if I get the chance tomorrow I may well do that.

Obviously I feel a bit sick that I made the switch when I did and wish I'd held off but you can only trade what you see and that monster putt on the 10th was massively significant for Casey and very damaging for my book.

So I'm hoping for a Casey collapse tomorrow. Not particularly likely but it wouldn't be the first time, he's had a number of final round flops in his time and I remember very well him leading the British Open by three with nine to play a couple of years ago before a late cave-in. Who came through to steel the trophy? It was Roger Federer look-a-like, Johan Edfors. A repeat would be very nice.

Over in Hawaii, Id blearily watched some of the second round very early this morning after a visit to the local and had gone to bed a bit disappointed as well as a bit worse for wear. Last week's winner, Geoff Ogilvy, was clinging on to the leaders but playing quite scrappily, relying on some excellent scrambling.

It was looking like one of those weeks when all my picks were going to make the cut but none were going to threaten the judge. Outsider McNeill was doing the best but he was five off the lead and my big fancy for the week, Zach Johnson, was eight off the lead with eight to play.

So when I got up this morning I was delighted to see Johnson had picked up four shots in his last three holes to get within a couple of the lead and that Ogilvy had finally succumbed and dropped a few shots.

I have to still be confident with Zach, two behind lightweight leaders Nathan Green and Tom Pernice jr and one behind Shigeki Maruyama and Brian Gay, none of which are particularly resolute in contention. He looks a fair bet to me at [9.0] and I'm certainly not reaching for the pink button yet.

Whatever happens I'll review the twists and turns at both events on Monday.

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