The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 26 January 2009 /

Backed at [90.0] when the market opened, the Spaniard brings home the bacon for our golf punter.

Saturday night was spent checking and re-checking the 'in contention' stats for my pick, Alvaro Quiros, his closest pursuer Louis Oosthuizen, and course specialist Henrik Stenson, who was four strokes behind the Spaniard. I was almost trying to hammer some doubt into my mind, but I just couldn't.

Quiros had impressed me with his two previous European Tour wins and the stats merely confirmed my opinion of the other two in the mix; I couldn't entertain laying my man at [2.5].

Despite a good recent record he drifted overnight and Oosthuizen contracted and I was scratching my head as to why. When Stenson failed to birdie the par five 1st, Oosthuizen had hacked his way to the back of the green in four shots and Quiros was just shy of the green in two, Quiros was matched at [2.0]; which I felt was still too big.

Whether I was being too brave, too daft or maybe even clever is certainly debatable but I kept up my obstinate stance and was put through the mill as a result.

Quiros didn't play at all well for the first eight holes and lost the lead, admitting afterwards to feeling a bit nervy early on. But a lengthy birdie on the 9th kick-started his round and another three birdies in the next four holes looked to have secured the title. And I still hadn't gone pink.

With the benefit of hindsight and with heaps of self criticism I'd felt I'd layed a bit too much back on last week's winner Zach Johnson and I was determined not to do it again this week. So, when Quiros' nearest challenger Stenson was on the par four 15th green and fully 30 feet from the hole after two shots, and my man was standing on the tee with a two shot lead, I turned my nose up at the [1.40] available to lay. Two clear with four to play, two of which were obvious birdie chances and I felt [1.40] was twice as big as it should have been.

Ten minutes later, after Stenson had drained his birdie putt and Quiros had found the water with his second shot I was cursing my misfortune. But even though it looked like it was going to cost me dear, I still felt I'd done the right thing in the circumstances.

Then my intrepid Spaniard holed a lengthy bogey putt to remain tied for the lead and Stenson's drive on the very easy 16th found an awkward spot in the rough, yet another swing. The Swede could only par the 16th and when Quiros birdied it, all was rosy again and I still hadn't given any back.

Stenson also failed to birdie the 17th and I finally layed some back on Quiros at an average of [1.17]. I needn't have bothered, Stenson made a right pig's ear of the last, while Quiros made yet another birdie on the 17th and he strolled up the last with the luxury of a three shot lead.

It's nice when you do it right. Stressful, but nice.

Perhaps I'm biased about Quiros, and it would be hard not to be after collecting on him twice in three months, but for my eyes he's got a massive future and has to be followed when he's a decent price. It will be interesting to see how he's priced up over the next few weeks, but I accept I may not see [90.0] about him for quite a while.

I wasn't going to get involved at the Bob Hope in the States. Steve Stricker led after four rounds by three shots from Pat Perez, with the rest of the field at least three further back, but just before they teed off I modestly layed the pair at [1.38] and [4.8] respectfully.

Stricker had an absolute mare and after ten holes was an incredible six over par and out of it. The hardly reliable non-winner Perez was hardly convincing and another maiden, John Merrick, came through the field and tied for the lead with two holes to play. I layed him too at [4.5] as he made his move and my tournament stakes were set to be recovered regardless of the result.

That was until I made the decision to side with Merrick when the satellite radio coverage said he had 15 feet for birdie on the 17th. That proved to be dud information; he was in the rough and made bogey, handing the initiative to Perez, who made no mistake with an impressive eagle on the last to win by three and I'd made a small loss.

It just goes to show you can't put complete faith in any of the information feeds but for some reason (maybe it had something to do with Quiros Steve? - Ed) I was in decent spirits and didn't get too upset by the error.

As for the winner, well it will be interesting to see which way Perez goes now. Highly talented, formally very temperamental and certainly dodgy in the mix but now a winner, he could go on to gather a few more trophies and fulfil his unquestioned potential.

Two strong fields gather this week for the Dubai Desert Classic and the FBR Open and I'll be looking to make it three in a row, I'll post my preview on Wednesday.

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