The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

Gonzo, Chad Campbell, King Johns Castle - the list of bets nearly landed this weekend is endless

The Portuguese Open returned to last year's venue, Quinta da Marinha, where Pablo Martin had famously become the first amateur winner on the European Tour. It was also the scene of one of the most amazing finishes I've seen when back in 2005, Paul Broadhurst had sneaked a win courtesy of a triple bogey on the 17th by Paul Lawrie and a quintuple bogey nine on the last by Barry Lane. I make eight picks, ranging from Marcus Brier [41.0] to Patrick Sjoland [310.0].

I was really struggling to decide on tactics for the Houston Open on the PGA Tour. I had three fancies, Phil Mickelson, KJ Choi and Stuart Appleby. As they were all fairly short in price I couldn't decide whether to back all three before the off or wait and back whoever faired best in running. I eventually backed all three on Wednesday afternoon. Weighting my stakes, I was effectively backing all three combined at approximately [5.3].

Day one

A great start from one of my picks in Portugal, Gonzalo Fernando-Castano, backed at an average of [105.0], had shot -7 in the morning and with the anticipation of the wind picking up in the afternoon, his lead looked safe and his price dropped to [5.0]. By late afternoon he was [15.0]. Unusually the wind died away in the afternoon and the later starters clearly had the best of the conditions. By the close of play 'Gonzo' didn't even hold the lead. That was shared by Gregory Bourdy and defending champion Martin on -8. Another pick Jose Manuel Lara, backed at an average of [135.0] had an incredible day, +2 after five holes he went on to tie 'Gonzo' on -7.

But it was a disastrous day one in the States that saw defending champion Adam Scott, despite suffering with some sort of bug, shoot an immaculate -9! The best any of mine could muster was -2 from Stuart Appleby. It was clear I had made a monumentally bad decision to have backed my fancies pre event - especially given that Mickelson and Choi had both drawn a much tougher afternoon tee time.

Curiously, defending champions of both tournaments held a share of the lead after day one.

Day two

Of the European morning starters Lara was one of the more mediocre performers, shooting a lacklustre one under par 70 leaving him six shots behind leader Gregory Bourdy. In the afternoon Marcus Brier started a charge, -4 for the day after seven holes, but having birdied four holes on the spin the wheels fell off. A double bogey at the 8th was just the start, and a missed cut beckoned. He's showing signs of a return to form though and I'll be keeping an eye on him in the near future.

It looked for a while as though 'Gonzo' was going to make it a hat-trick of disappointments but he rallied very well after double bogeying the 5th and bogeying the 6th. He ended the day two behind Bourdy and trading @ [6.0].

At the Houston Open Choi and Mickelson both improved considerably, shooting -6 and -4 respectfully, I also added to my portfolio by backing Chad Campbell as he closed out his second round @ [36.0]. Afternoon starters were now fighting the same horrid conditions that those playing on Thursday afternoon had endured. Overnight leader Scott shot +4 and was now only one in front of my three.

To emphasize how bad things were, both last week's winner, Romero, and Spain's Alejandro Canizares found the water four times on the 18th hole. Romero made 11 and Canizares 12!

The lead was now with Johnson Wagner on -12.

Day three

Bourdy looked a bit shaky early on and when he bogeyed the third 'Gonzo' had a five foot birdie attempt to level him and touched [4.0]. Remarkably he not only missed that but also missed the putt back for par. Looking completely flummoxed he bogeyed the next two holes and looked to have blown it. But he clawed his way back to within three of Bourdy by the last hole but then made double bogey! Bourdy was four clear at the close of play and was [1.7]. I made a play on Miles Tunnicliff @ [40.0], he was five back but has won a couple of times and looked a big price compared to the 28-1 on the High Street.

In the States, Adam Scott had decided he was now too ill to continue and Chad Campbell closed to within one of Wagner and was now favourite @ [2.6]. I was extremely hopeful.

Day four

Bourdy threw the lead away early on. He drifted to [13.0] after going three over par through six holes and both 'Gonzo' and Tunnicliff held the lead at different stages. Tunnicliff traded as short as [2.84] when he looked in the driving seat after birdying the 13th but a limp finish saw him finish a shot shy of a three man play-off between Forsyth, Howell and Bourdy. 'Gonzo' having putted horrendously all weekend, missed out on the extra action by two shots. It was the European Tour's sixth play-off on the trot. I made the mistake of backing Howell in the play-off, which went to Bourdy on the third extra hole.

In the States my woes continued when Chad Campbell went backwards very quickly, by the fifth hole he was five off the lead and trading in double figures. When he drove in to the bunker and played his second shot in the water on the 8th he was freely available @ [50.0] and I'd had a guts full of the entire weekend. It's rare I get so disconsolate that I switch the golf off but I did last night. Watching the recording this morning I see that Campbell did get to within one of Wagner with three holes to play but it merely gave him another chance to choke. Bogeying the 16th he cleared the stage for Wagner who held his nerve superbly to record a well deserved first win on tour.

Possibly my most disappointing weekend ever, I really fancied 'Gonzo' to convert an excellent chance but I can honestly say I've never seen a pro putt that bad. Tunnicliff then looked highly likely to compensate, only to fall agonisingly short. In the States I had been supremely confident that Chad Campbell would have too much experience for the rookie Wagner but his performance was diabolical.

In addition to the golf woes in the Grand National I had taken [40.0] about King Johns Castle about a fortnight ago and for a brief moment approaching the elbow he looked like the winner, but it was to be a frustrating and frankly depressing weekends punting.

Oh well, onwards and upwards, if there was ever a tournament to blow away the blues it's the Masters. I will post my selections for the first major of the year here on Wednesday.

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