The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 19 November 2008 / 4 Comments

The Punter anticipates tranquil dawns and aesthetically pleasing courses as he looks ahead to this week's events. Beware of late closers in Hong Kong and look out for a solid Spaniard in Japan...

The race to Dubai is back on track this week with the 50th staging of the Hong Kong Open. It's an event I look forward to each year, not that I've had oodles of success here, quite the contrary; though I did back Miguel Angel-Jimenez last year in running. But the course is easy on the eye and I enjoy the peace and quiet I get with these early morning events.

James Kingston should have already won this tournament twice but final hole nerves denied him in 2004 and again in 2005 and this year, remarkably, he's taking the week off.

Thongchai Jaidee also loves it here but he's at least ten points too short for my liking, so he's left out.

Last week's winner Jeev Milkha Singh, Graeme McDowell, Soren Kjeldsen and even Monty were all considered but in the end I've gone for a bunch of rags, an infuriating-to-follow Italian and last year's winner.

With form figures of 1-38-6-1 over the last four years here I can't leave Miguel Angel Jimenez out at [18.5]. It's a bit of a worry that he didn't do so well on his first defence but that's in the price.

Second up is Francesco Molinari, backed at [60.0]. He finished a disappointing 29th last year followed a pleasing eighth on debut in 2006. His straight driving could see him feature again this year but he's a very frustrating player to back, often coming with a late rattle but failing by one or two shots.

This track suits late closers though and third round leaders rarely convert. A couple of other interesting facts; there's never been a wire to wire winner and even more unusually there's never been a play-off here.

It's also a fact that the winner usually comes from somewhere near the front of the market. Despite that, I've added a few selections from leftfield.

Markus Brier seems to be an unjustly big price most weeks, given he keeps popping up on leaderboards, while David Horsey, winner of last year's Challenge Tour Order of Merit, is a name all golf fans will get to know soon.

Thammanoon Srirot has had a couple of top four finishes here and is also worth a few bob.

Simon Wakefield is taking a long time to recover from being in the thick of things at last year's Open but he shouldn't be as big as [400.0], given how straight he is off the tee.

The other two picks are speculative to say the least and will need to drive a lot better than they usually do.

Selections:

Miguel Angel Jimenez at [18.5]
Francesco Molinari at [60.0]
Markus Brier at [110.0]
David Horsey at [170.0]
Marcel Siem at [240.0]
Daniel Vancsik at [310.0]
Thammanoon Srirot at [380.0]
Simon Wakefield at [400.0]

Just the one bet on the Japanese Tour, where I've taken [26.0] about Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to win the Dunlop Phoenix. The solid Spaniard has excellent form here with three top-eight finishes over the last three years.

Selection:

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

I will post an update after the cut in both events on Friday.

Comments (4)

1. Dean | 19 November 2008

   Hi, I hope you don't mind me sharing my thoughts on this weeks events! In the Hong Kong Open i fancy Peter Hanson quite strongly for this. He is playing some of the best golf of his life and has really gone up a level since his win in Sweden earlier in the year, he also has the perfect game for this course and was 5th here last year, also throw in a 3rd place finish recently in the HSBC (in a much better quality field than this) i just think out of the main contenders, he must have a strong chance. One of your picks Molinari, i've backed him a number of times, but have realised he just does not have any bottle in my opinion, and is more of a top 5 or top 10 bet for me. My only other bet is Rory Mcilroy. Although i do think he is very short, when you compare him to some other players at a similar price he has so much more talent than someone like Jaidee, even though Jaidee has a solid record here, i just think Rory is definitely getting closer to that first win, and is playing very solid at the moment, so i'm prepared to take a chance at skinny odds on this occasion, as he is heading in the right direction.

   In Japan, i have to say i disagree with you here, i think Castano is way too short, again i know he has a solid record here, and whilst i am a big fan of his and his ability to win tournaments when in contention, he is simply too short. He is the type of player i look to back at 3 figure odds, and was lucky enough to do so earlier in the season when he won at the Belfry, but good luck with him and i hope he goes well for you. My only bet is Martin Kaymer, i just think he is different class to anyone in the field except Els, but as Ernie is short this week, i think Kaymer is worth a bet at double figure odds. I would certainly rather back him than Stenson who you can never trust, or Poulter who I am just not a fan of at all! He rarely produces his best when playing on his own, if only he could play like he did in the Ryder Cup more often he really would be top class.

   Thanks and Good Luck this week.

2. Golf Editor | 20 November 2008

   Hi Dean - I can't speak for Steven but I can assure you that, at B.B, we welcome all comments so thanks for sharing with us.
   Cheers,
   Joe
   PS - That Hanson bet is looking good...

3. Dean | 20 November 2008

   Hi, yes a solid start from Hanson so that's good, and Mcilroy is not that far behind. Awful from Kaymer though in Japan lol, i was more hopeful rather than confident on him, and just wanted an interest in that event, but a shocking start from him!

   Cheers

4. Steven Rawlings | 21 November 2008

   Hi Dean,

   I thought 'Gonzo' a bit skinny myself if I'm honest but not ever so. He's consistently too big week on week for such a solid closer.
   I considered Kaymer myself but I assumed he was only there for the appearance money. I'd heard a few weeks back he was to take a long break so I was very surprised to see him line up.
   With you on Molinari, he certainly needs to time his run right but I felt that was in the price. It's surprising how he's developed, he looked incredibly solid when he won his national open a few years back.
   Good luck with Rory over the weekend and thanks for your comments.

   Steve

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