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Golf Betting: A poor week for The Punter who gets his champions mixed up

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Golf trader and Betfair blogger Steven Rawlings rounds up his betting diary for the Volvo China Open and the Verizon Heritage

It rained incessantly on the final day in Beijing, playing perfectly into the hands of overnight leader Damien McGrane who would have encountered such conditions hundreds of times back home in Ireland. As a result of the weather the scoring went through the roof with virtually everyone struggling and only John Bickerton made par for the day.

McGrane romped to a virtually stress free nine shot victory. He only looked in any sort of danger playing the par five 9th. At the time he was just three shots clear of Lorenzo Vera, coming off a bogey on the 8th and starting to look just the slightest bit vulnerable. After three shots he was short of the green, in the rough, and in between two bunkers with another bogey looking a distinct possibility. But instead of dropping a shot he unexpectedly chipped in for birdie and after that the result was never in any doubt.

From a betting perspective, it was a drab last day with the result in no doubt well before the end. But credit to McGrane, as dull as it was to watch it was a very professional performance and a thoroughly deserved first tour win.

The third round at the Heritage hadn't gone well. Stephen Ames, despite an eagle on the second hole, had followed Friday's brilliant 64 with an awful 74. For the second Saturday running he'd completely blown his chance with a dreadful third round while carrying the heavy burden of my cash.

Jim Furyk shot a third consecutive round of 68 but found himself six shots adrift of new leader, defending champion Boo Weekley on -15.

Weekley started the final round at [1.55] and dotted up by three strokes. Well that's what the scoreboard shows but that really doesn't tell the tale. When he won here last year he chipped in on both the 17th and 18th holes. This year he was even more fortunate.

He basically struggled all day. From the get-go he put himself under the cosh, needing to hole from 15 feet for par on the 1st. When he took a four shot lead after chipping in on the 10th for an unlikely birdie he was looking so dodgy that I laid him at [1.07]. Then on the 13th he sneaked a bogey putt in the side door from over nine feet. On the 14th tee, avoiding the water that runs adjacent to the right hand side of the green, his tee shot landed on the left hand fringe. From there his putt was travelling so fast that had it not hit the hole, jumped in the air and dropped in it may well have run into the water! It was calamitous stuff but he survived, thanks mainly to the lack of a decent challenge.

He's a real character is Boo, a self confessed tobacco chewing redneck who claims golf is too stressful and that he's going to pack it all up as soon as here's earned enough money to take up a life of huntin' and fishin'.

It's not often someone starts a Sunday with a three shot lead, shoots level par to win by three and you're left thinking 'there's one to avoid next time he's in contention'. But that was certainly the case here.

While all this was going on my pick Jim Furyk had sped out of the gate and gotten to three under par through five holes. When he had a seven footer on the 7th for yet another birdie he touched [4.1]. But he missed that, and an even shorter one on the 9th and from there on in it was poor stuff from Jim, the only alteration to his score being an unwelcome bogey on the 11th.

So I'd backed the defending champion in China only to see the defending champion in America win. It was another losing week and although both Brier and Furyk finished in the top five I never really looked like bagging the winner in either event. And the least said about Richard Finch the better!

My preview for next week's events will be posted on Wednesday.

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Saturday April 19th

In China, Marcus Brier was my only selection left with any sort of a chance after the first round, despite being one of those disadvantaged by a late tee time. There had been a disparity with the draw this week, with the afternoon starters on Thursday getting by far the worst of the weather. He followed up on Friday morning with a decent round too and by the time the third round started at 5.30am this morning he was within four of the lead and trading @ about [13.0].

But Brier started slowly today and kept the pace to a respectable crawl. With only a handful of players looking like having a realistic winning chance I made a play on Richard Finch at [7.0], after he'd played three holes. He's already a winner on this year's European Tour schedule, having won the New Zealand Open in December last year. Don't ask how that works.

Anyway, he continued with a calm disposition and even birdied the 5th. Looking good tied for the lead and down to [4.5]. But a poor bunker shot on the 6th changed everything for 'Finchy'. As the bogeys piled up his face got redder and redder, as if in sympathy with my book. At times he looked genuinely embarrassed, but it was a deplorable effort from a recent winner.

As for Brier he went from crawl to stall but did bounce back with birdies at the 16th and 17th. He missed a really short birdie putt on the last though and is now seven back of the lead.

That lead is with 'Wexford wobbler' Damien McGrane. Hardly the most solid closer on tour the veteran maiden holed some monstrous putts today and to be fair to him bounced back admirably whenever it looked likely that his challenge would falter. He really should have enough in hand with a three shot lead over thrice tour runner-up Oliver Wilson, who putted poorly today, and young Frenchman Lorenzo Vera. The latter having confessed to being a bag of nerves who's unable to sleep, he's even considering going on the beer to remedy the malady!

I've put a small wager on last months Johnnie Walker Classic winner, Mark Brown @ [29.0] who's six shots back, just in case there's a complete meltdown by the leaders, which is far from beyond the realms of possibility.

Happily, there's better news in America... so far!

After two rounds at Hilton Head both my main picks are mercifully in contention. Two rounds of 68 have placed Jim Furyk four off the lead, while Stephen Ames' poor first round of level par was spectacularly left behind yesterday with a 64. He's just three back of leader Lucas Glover.

I'm not a fan of Glover at all and I thoroughly expect him to helter-skelter back down the leaderboard when play resumes this evening. Last year's winner Boo Weekley, is one shot behind Glover and now a very fair price at around [7.2]. It's very tight after that and as I've got my main bets in the mix anyway I'm not making any further plays at this stage.

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Wednesday April 16th

It's back to China for the European Tour and yet another new course to ponder, so stakes are kept small and picks are few.

Raphael Jacquelin, backed @ [44.0], led this event early on last year but faded to finish sixth. He's bidding to become the third French winner in as many European Tour events but he's returning to action following the deaths of both a close friend and his father. He could miss the cut by a mile or be completely inspired.

I've also backed defending champion Markus Brier @ [40.0]. He's already won one title twice, the Austrian Open. Although he missed the cut last time, he's starting to show glimpses of form.

My third and final pick is Chapchai Nirat @ [110.0]. His confidence should be high after mixing it with the elite in the CA Championship last time out. And he's already won in China having annihilated the field in the TCL Classic there last March.

On the PGA Tour it's a different story. The Verizon Heritage has been staged at Hilton Head since 1969 and so there's plenty of course form to evaluate. A complete contrast to Augusta, driving accuracy and putting are key around this tight, attractive on the eye, Pete Dye designed course.

Jim Furyk, backed @ [18.5], missed the cut last year but was runner-up in the two previous Heritage's. He showed his first real sign of form this year in the CA Championship and contended early last week before dropping away.

Another player who featured in the first two rounds last week was Stephen Ames. The 2006 Players Champion had a poor final round of 77 to finish in a tie for 21st last year but has an excellent record here. He didn't play in 2006 but was 6th in 2005 and 7th in 2004. He could be value at [44.0].

I've also backed Ben Crane @ [100.0] and Heath Slocum @ [110.0], along with a few real long shots, Tim Petrovic @ [320.0] and two [400.0] shots, Frank Lickliter and Greg Kraft.

I'll post again with an update on Saturday afternoon.