The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 02 November 2008 /

It's a case of so far, so not so good for The Punter this week. Martin Kaymer may still bail him out at the Volvo Masters but Garcia or Westwood are the most likely winners from here. And here's also the latest from across the pond...

I had looked forward to the Volvo Masters but like many an event I look forward to; in no time at all I wondered why I had.

As can be the case with an eagerly awaited event, over analysis and a bit too much enthusiasm resulted in more selections than was wise. I made matters worse on Thursday, when over zealously rushing in with a couple more seemingly unproductive wagers on Stenson at [50.0] and Kaymer at [26.0].

By the end of round one my book was looking horrendous.

Friday's poor weather forecast materialised with gusto and anyone who had stated the event tardily was seriously handicapped playing in the morning's torrential rain before play was abandoned for the day.

Indeed when Darren Clarke finished his second round yesterday lunchtime he claimed it was at least four shots easier than it had been on Friday, so in effect more than half the field had no chance.

The second round eventually finished at lunchtime yesterday with the scoreboard looking much the same as it had after round one.

With Kjeldsen leading by two shots from Westwood, Garcia and Anthony Wall it made frustrating reading. None of the leaders were what I'd describe as favourites of mine, though I was impressed with the way Garcia was playing, I couldn't commit to him at around [3.4].

I did have another bet though; a few bob on Casey at an average of [32.0], he was five off the lead at the time.

There's still a long way to go, with play halting yesterday with the leaders through just six holes of their third rounds and it's not hard to criticise the organisers who in their wisdom decided not to play the third round in round two draw order. Instead they went for a redraw resulting in players sitting round waiting all morning for the rain to arrive again, has to be said, very poor planning.

At least they've learnt from their mistake now; all players will remain in third round draw order for the final round. It's all a bit of a mess really with the final round due to start around midday, providing the weather holds.

I'm not happy with my book with Kaymer now my best hope, and maybe my only hope, but I'm not going to make matters worse. I think Garcia or Westwood will win from where they were at the close of play last night, but they're far too short for me, so it's across the pond for a wager.

Frustratingly both events will be played out at the same time, with the final round at the Gin sur Mer Classic starting early, so things could get hectic.

Having had just the one bet from the outset and no further bets until now I've spent quite some time studying what is a very congested and confusing leaderboard and I've come up with Ryan Palmer.
Like many Texans, Palmer seems to handle the windy conditions and arguably he should have put this event to bed. He's already traded as low as [2.82] and did at one point hold a three shot lead but he bogeyed three of the last four holes to fall back into a tie for 2nd, clearly not a great sign I admit.

The lead is now with Michael Letzig on -7, which bizarrely was the case after round one. Friday's two over par round was corrected yesterday with a two under 70 but I can't fancy him. He hasn't won on any tour and when he's led, which I admit isn't often, he's gone backwards. The best example being this time last year when he disappointed after holding a second round lead on the Nationwide Tour, his third round 73 was just about the worst round of the week by anyone.

Also in the final three ball are Kenny Ferrie and John Huston. In short, Ferrie's very erratic and Huston's very much in the veteran stage and they're both passed over.

There are players that could close from behind but at the price taken, an average of [8.6], Palmers a decent punt. Not being in the final group should help and he may just have had his sticky patch. But there really should be a wealth warning on the event as its pretty low grade fare.

I'll review both events tomorrow morning

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