The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 May 2008 /

The punter brings us up to date on his gambling exploits at the Italian Open and, of course, the Players Championship.

The first day's play in Italy wasn't the most enjoyable watch. Seeing the likes of Remesy & in particular Marc Warren sluicing their way up the leaderboard the week after I'd backed them at [300.0] & [200.0] respectfully, when they'd missed the cut, wasn't my idea of fun.
Anders Hansen, who shot -4, was the best of my three picks but he was four off the lead. Molinari and Siem both shot lacklustre rounds of 70.

At the Players Championship on Thursday the morning starters averaged 72.83 while those playing in the afternoon averaged nearly two shots more @ 74.5. My only afternoon starter Richard Sterne had struggled, shooting 77. The best of mine after the first round had been Steve Elkington, who's three under round of 69, left him three shots behind overnight leader Sergio Garcia. Both Fred Couples and Ben Crane shot 70 putting them in a tie for 9th.
As the later starters began to fall away I backed Mickelson, who'd shot -2, @ an average of [11.3]. I knew he had the potentially far tougher afternoon tee time to play but many of his market rivals were already playing their way out of the competition and by Friday morning his price was down to [8.4].

Friday morning saw Robert Karlsson take the Italian Open by the scruff; I missed the price and was kicking myself a bit as he compiled a second round 61. When Id looked at the first round leaderboard I'd thought he could be a factor, he tends to do well in these low scoring events. But it was one of those days when I just couldn't commit for some reason. Maybe the memory of his horrid finish in Hong Kong was holding me back; he'd gone clear there and had looked the winner all weekend before handing the title on a plate to Jimenez.

Molinari was poor and missed the cut, Siem had a run of five birdies around the turn but is too far back to contend but Hansen had a solid round, his 65 leaves him four behind Karlsson, which just might suit him.

I had backed Steve Webster in running, after he'd played nine holes @ an average of [29.0]. Unfortunately he stuttered soon after, sandwiching a couple of bogeys between a couple of birdies and is available much bigger now.

So what about Karlsson at around [2.3]? I think he's just about worth opposing. He's clearly in good heart but he is going to have to back up yesterday's low round and that's never easy. There's also the Hong Kong memory that needs eradicating and there are some fine players in his wing mirrors that are quite capable of low rounds themselves. The value could lie with players like Dredge, Archer, or even my man Hansen. All three are favoured by not leading too early. I've made an additional small play on Archer @ [40.0].

Last night at the Players it was becoming apparent that I'd been barking up the right tree by selecting players whose careers were at the Autumnal stage. Though my old timers were only on the fringes of contention, at the top of the leaderboard are Kenny Perry, who leads on -6, just ahead of Bernard Langer and Paul Goydos, both on -5. All three have many years of experience to draw upon to deal with the tough conditions.

It's a bit of a frustrating leaderboard for me really, all of my initial picks have made the cut and three of them are in the top dozen but all of them, including Mickelson now, look to be one or two shots too far a drift.

History shows that it's very hard to come from too far back at the Players and to find the winner from here I should be concentrating on the first four or five on the leaderboard but I'm pretty negative about them all really. In addition to the three already mentioned, who I couldn't trust implicitly to keep going, first round leader Garcia is also on -5 but still has putting woes aplenty.
On -4, last week's winner Anthony Kim will again be playing with Boo Weekley on -3. The two have played a few practice rounds together this week, have been in the same three ball on Thursday and Friday and it's also a repeat of the final round pairing at the Verizon Heritage three weeks ago, when Boo scrambled home. I can see these two feeding of each other but I'm very wary that Kim could soon show signs of mental fatigue, he must be close to being drained mentally by now.

If I was forced to make a further play at this stage it would be Boo Weekley @ [14.5] but as three of my original picks are on -2 anyway and Mickelson's on -1, I've decided to leave things alone for now. I'm moderately hopeful one of my guys will muscle in on things tonight.
Win, lose or draw it looks sure to be a fascinating final two rounds in Florida and I'll post my review on Monday.

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