WGC Bridgestone Betting: Big Phil throws it but The Punter is still a big winner
The Punter
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Steven Rawlings /
04 August 2008 /
Read our golf diarist's round-up of the WGC Bridgestone weekend.
The final round at the Bridgestone Invitational didn't have Tiger Woods but it did have just about everything else you'd want from a closing 18 holes. Plenty of excitement and suspense but for me there was a heap load of disappointment too.
None of the main protagonists looked completely convincing. Eventual winner Vijay Singh started very well but missed plenty of short putts, while Lee Westwood made a complete hash of the par three 7th and yet again played his best golf when a few shots behind. As soon as he got a sniff of the lead the putts struggled to reach the hole again.
Stuart Appleby started very poorly but finished like a train and was only one shot shy in the end but the big disappointment was Phil Mickelson. This title was his to lose and lose it he did.
The turning point came on the 14th green when he missed his birdie putt from about eight feet for a two shot lead. As he'd stood over that putt he'd reached a low of [1.56] but after that he bogeyed three of the last four holes.
He'd looked at his very best with every department of his game apart from putting and the frustration of consistently failing to hole from around the ten foot mark eventually took its toll.
It was very frustrating for me too as I'd targeted [1.5] as my lay trigger price and had one more putt dropped I'd have reached that easily. You've also got to wonder how much the poor finish will affect him next week where I've already backed him at [13.0].
Oh well, much better news at the second division event, the Reno-Tahoe Open, with Parker McLachlin, backed from the outset at [80.0] winning by seven shots despite a final round of two over par.
The result was irrelevant in the end, the lay bets on Saturday had secured a decent profit anyway but it was nice to see him get his first victory.
Ironically his strength all week, unlike Mickelson, had been putting from around the
ten foot mark and he made a few great par saves early on yesterday from that region.
It's the final major of the year next week, the USPGA Championship, and I'll post my preview on Wednesday morning.
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Day Three Diary
The later starters had the worst of the weather at the Bridgestone Invitational yesterday but it didn't seem to stop them. There's now a three way tie at the top with Westwood, Singh and my in-running pick Phil Mickelson all tied on -8, with Stuart Appleby one back in 4th.
Stewart Cink was disappointing, skulking back into the pack, and the best of my original picks is now Darren Clarke who shot 65 to sit -4 for the tournament, but in truth, the winner seems likely to come from the front four.
My man Lefty started with a bogey and drove the ball poorly for most of yesterday's round but then seemed to blossom late on and after a run of three straight birdies from the 14th hole he traded at a low of [2.34]. A poor last hole bogey saw his price drift a bit and means he'll be in the second-to-last group tonight, he's still the one to beat though. Fingers crossed for a better start tonight, my target is to lay him back at less than [1.5].
I'm loath to say I'm confident because you never quite know with Lefty but I'm not a big fan of Westwood in a finish, while Singh isn't the rock solid closer he once was, passing up good chances this year already at the AT & T, Pebble Beach and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I'm tempted by Appleby at more than [9.0], he could be the value play but for now I'm sticking with Lefty.
At the Reno-Tahoe Open outright pick Parker McLachlin looks highly likely to win now after a nerveless third round 66 took him six clear of Brian Davis and ten clear of John Rollins in third.
I'd stayed up until 2.00am laying him back at all rates from [2.3] down to [1.3] as he played his first 16 holes, ensuring an equal pay out whether he wins or loses.
I then get up this morning to see he also birdied the last two holes and I could have layed him back at around [1.2] this morning. Oh well, you can bet your bottom dollar that if I'd left it until today he'd have shot three over.
It's nice to know you've had a good week before the fourth round even starts; I'm now hoping Lefty can make it a very good week.
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Day Two Diary
At the halfway stage at Firestone only Cink remains in contention of my original picks. The new leader is Vijay Singh on -7 with my in-running pick Mickelson just one back and now favourite at around [4.2].
It looked for a short while yesterday as though Mickelson was going to establish a lead of a couple of shots going into the weekend and he traded as low as [2.8], but a scrappy finish and Singh's afternoon round changed the complexion somewhat.
It's a choc-a-bloc leaderboard now, brimming with quality players and for the time being I'm going to leave things as they are and see how things develop tonight.
My attention has moved to the second division event this week, the Reno-Tahoe Open. One of my outright picks, Parker McLachlin, backed at [80.0], has taken a four shot lead. I've also got Nick Flanagan at [95.0], currently tied for 2nd.
It seems the young guns could well have been inspired by fellow rookie Chez Reavie's excellent win last week.
I also backed John Rollins during his round yesterday at [34.0].
Unfortunately the leaders don't go out until 8.50 tonight so it's going to be a late one.
My hope is that McLachlin can get to below [2.0] before I lay off but I'll monitor events closely. I did lay some off last night at [2.7] but then changed my mind and backed the lay back at [3.05].
Four shots is a big lead but my worry is that he's still not quite ready to handle the pressure. He blew a very big lead at the Pete Dye Classic on the Nationwide Tour last August so I've got to be wary.
Could be a busy night!
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Day One Diary
I shall politely refer to it as an inauspicious start.
Day one of the Bridgestone Invitational didn't go quite as well as I'd hoped it would. With Goosen leading the field on -4, the best of my bets are Stuart Cink and Chez Reavie two back on -2 and I've given up on the rest.
Kenny Perry's bubble looks like it may have finally burst, he had a torrid time of it yesterday and there's no way back from his position of +4. With the benefit of hindsight it had to happen sooner or later.
I don't often make a big play this early on but I had a decent bet on Mickelson as he closed out his round on -2 at [11.5]. I'd considered backing him from the start at [14.0] as he has some good form here, albeit a long while ago before the course was tightened up, and he's not in bad form really. A close examination of his performance at the Open shows that he played well after getting blown away on Thursday morning. He's putting poorly but has an uncanny knack of turning that around in a flash and with an early start today I felt the price taken was very fair.
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