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Another tough week betting on the golf, when will The Punter's luck change?

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Last week's bet wins in Italy, while Goydos goes down in a play-off at the Players'

The third round of the Italian Open saw Robert Karlsson stutter, despite an eagle on the first hole. South African Hennie Otto began the day two back of Karlsson but was soon snapping away at the lead. His most pivotal moment came when he found the water from the 8th tee but then sank a lengthy bogey putt to keep him on track. He played immaculately from then on in and when he birdied the last three holes he opened up a substantial gap of four shots.

At the close of play I backed Karlsson @ [7.4], which was more than fair as the best he was on the high street was [5.5].

Of my previous selections, Anders Hansen had been bitterly disappointing after making eagle on the 1st he bogeyed three of the next seven holes to play his way out of the tournament. Philip Archer shot an impressive 65 but thanks to Otto's stunning finish was still five shots back.

I wrote on Saturday morning that I was moderately hopeful that one of my original picks at the Players' Championship, on the fringes of contention after two rounds, would get involved, it was very disappointing to see all of them go backwards during round three. That only left Phil Mickelson and he played well until disaster struck on the 14th and his tee shot took a swim. A double bogey there and a bogey at the last put the dampers on his round and his 71 left him on -2.

At the close of play Paul Goydos on -7 led by one from Perry with Garcia another two back. It looked at that stage that history would be repeated and it would again be vital to be up with the pace after two rounds.

The final day in Italy saw Otto bolt out of the gates, three birdies in his first five holes looked to have given him the comfort zone required. He made a mess of the sixth hole but made a par putt from around 50 feet, it looked like it was going to be his day and it was.

Oliver Wilson did momentarily draw level and was matched as low as [2.2] after making four birdies on the spin. But he then failed to birdie the par-5 15th and Otto went on to claim his first European Tour title, one week too late for me though, as I'd backed him at the half way stage last week!

I could also rue not backing Marcel Siem for a top five or top ten finish. A fine weekend saw my pre event [350.0] shot end up in a tie for fourth with Philip Archer, who had looked early on in the round to be a challenger to Otto but a poor back nine ruined the Englishman's challenge.

Before play started in America I layed off most of my Mickelson bet @ [8.2] and also backed Paul Goydos @ [4.4]. I thought 'Lefty' had a mountain to climb and Goydos was at least a point bigger than he should have been.

It didn't take long to see I'd done the right thing laying off Mickelson, a double bogey at the 1st put paid to any chance he had and for a very long while it looked like I'd done the right thing backing Goydos. In fact it looked like his name was already on the trophy when he drained a 50-foot birdie putt on the 4th and made an outrageous birdie on the 10th when he pitched in from the rough, but it wasn't to be. He traded as low as [1.21] but a last hole bogey set up a dramatic play off with Sergio Garcia. When Goydos' tee shot found the water on the famous 17th hole the initiative was with the Spaniard. An excellent tee shot from Sergio sealed the deal and it was nice to see him secure such a prestigious title, maybe gaining some compensation for last year's final day demise at the Open.

He had shown incredible tenacity. Having led after day one, Garcia continued to struggle with his putter and it was testament to his character and the rest of his game that he was able to hang on to become only the second European winner of the event.

I'm still keeping my stakes low as recent results aren't fantastic to say the least. But I'm knocking at the door and runs like the one I'm having are inevitable when betting on golf so I'm not too downbeat about another week without a win.

The only way forward is to do more homework - I'll post my selections for next week on Wednesday.