Race To Dubai / Mike Norman / 21 December 2010 /

If you're looking for a golf bet that keeps you interested throughout the season then look no further than the Race to Dubai market on Betfair. Mike Norman gives his thoughts on who to follow in 2010.

This season's Race to Dubai (R2D) promises to be an exhilarating battle, not just fought out between the cream of the European Tour's golfers, but by some of the very best players in the world of golf.

Never before has European golf been so strong. Six of the top 10 ranked golfers in the world - including world number one Lee Westwood - hail from Europe, whilst the European Tour can boast three current major champions - Graeme McDowell, Louis Oosthuizen, and Martin Kaymer - amongst its members.

And just in case the Tour needed another boost, world number three Kaymer turned down his offer of a full PGA Tour Card in favour of spending another season over here, whilst the world's most exciting prospect - in my eyes at least - Rory McIlroy has also committed his immediate future to this side of the pond. Add all this to the fact that world stars such as Luke Donald, Paul Casey, Retief Goosen, Ian Poulter, Ernie Els and Padraig Harrington will play the required amount of tournaments to contest the R2D, then you can understand why this season-long battle promises to be the most exciting it's been for many a year.

Westwood is understandably the favourite at [4.6] in this year's R2D Winner market given his world number one status and the undeniable ability the man has. He won the inaugural R2D title in 2009 and finished a gallant third in 2010 despite playing in eight less tournaments (mainly because of injury) than eventual winner Kaymer ([6.4]).

Backers of Westwood - of which I'm one - have a lot of things in their favour. He is extremely consistent in major championships - five top-three finishes since 2008 are testament to that - and when it comes to the World Golf Championship and European Tour flagship events it's not often Westwood doesn't pocket a lot of cash. Layers of Westwood will pin their hopes on him buckling under the pressures of holding on to the world number one slot whilst also hoping he fails in his attemp to break his duck in the majors. But I'm not convinced. Assuming he has fully recovered from the calf injury that derailed his R2D challenge last season, I have every confidence that Westwood will finish 2011 as Europe's number one golfer.

If I'd have written this preview a fortnight ago then McIlroy would probably have been my selection. True, his odds have shortened in the last 10 days or so without him hitting a single shot (he is in from [7.2] to [5.6] second favourite), but this isn't the main reason I'm deserting him.

On reflection, I still believe McIlroy has a lot to learn - the most obvious lesson being that, on occasion, a safe par is perfectly acceptable. His course management bewilders me sometimes. The exuberance of youth is fantastic, but going for a pin position that brings double and triple bogeys into play isn't what you want to see in a player that you've backed to finish as high up on the leaderboard as possible every time he tees it up.

Of course, McIlroy's game might have matured considerably since we last saw him, and the beauty of this market is that you can get on board or jump ship anytime you like. One high finish in a tournament isn't going to see a player's odds slashed dramatically; equally, one poor finish won't lengthen a player's odds to the same extent.

So my advice is watch the early part of the season closely. Look to see which players have altered their game, whether it be a change in swing, a change in putting style, or a change in mentality, and determine whether any change has benefited that player. For example, McIlroy might have a poor start to the season - but if his course management is great and his poor start is simply down to a few missed putts then I'll be getting Little Mac firmly on my side.

At slightly bigger odds I rate the chances of Robert Karlsson ([18.0]) winning this season's R2D very highly. The tall Swede topped the money list when it was called the Order of Merit in 2008 after an ultra-consistent year, but unfortunately suffered a serious eye injury in 2009 and was forced to miss a huge chunk of the season. He came back strong last season however, winning two tournaments on the European Tour including the prestigious season-ending Dubai World Championship just a few weeks ago. Now back to full health and clearly getting back to the form he showed in 2008, Karlsson will be high on the R2D standings throughout the season.

As a back-to-lay option there could be some merit in backing Edoardo Molinari at [50.0]. The Italian followed an extraordinary 2009 Challenge Tour campaign by playing some wonderful golf last season. He is likely to play in all the lucrative early season tournaments and has gained entry to all the major and WGC events courtesy of climbing to number 18 in the world golf rankings.


Recommended Bets:
Lee Westwood at [4.6]
Robert Karlsson at [18.0]
Edoardo Molinari at [50.0]

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