Race To Dubai Betting: Time to press up on Casey as money list hots up

Race To Dubai / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

After tipping Paul Casey for the Race to Dubai way back in the autumn, Paul Krishnamurty sees no reason to change tack now... Especially with a wet Wentworth likely to suit his game this weekend.

After six months of the revamped European Tour schedule now titled the 'Race to Dubai', we have the first significant tournament in mainland Europe this week. There are plenty more to come over the summer, but besides the majors, WGC events and the finale Dubai World Championship, only the Dunhill Links offers a bigger prize fund than the BMW PGA Championship.

It seems a sensible time, therefore, to re-assess the Race to Dubai market, which remains wide open. Back at the start in November, I picked out Paul Casey and Ross Fisher as the best value, and frankly I couldn't be happier with my position on the former. Casey sits in second place on the list, with 1.2M euros in earnings, 264,000 behind WGC Matchplay winner Geoff Ogilvy. Both are trading around [12.0], but considering that Ogilvy will certainly play several fewer tournaments, the Englishman rates a far likelier winner so I'm pressing up at these luxury odds.

I've felt for the last year that Casey is making significant progress towards the game's elite and so it has proved, with the Englishman up to seventh in the world rankings. He's only played two bad tournaments all year, winning two prestigious titles in Abu Dhabi and Houston, as well as finishing runner-up to Ogilvy in the Matchplay. Looking ahead at some of the pivotal Race to Dubai venues, it's hard to see Casey not being in contention towards the closing stages. In particular, next month's US Open venue Bethpage Black, plus Firestone CC, home of the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, are tailor-made for his power game.

So should Wentworth this week. With rain forecast across the country over the next few days, it seems certain that the course will be soft and playing very long. This really is ideal for Casey, who has already shown plenty of promise on the course. He has four top-12 finishes in this event, but his finest hour came when thrashing a series of rivals to win the 2006 HSBC Matchplay here. Even if he doesn't win this week, for which he is a very reasonable [16.0] chance, Casey's consistency right now looks set to ensure another sizeable cheque.

The wet conditions may also favour the man currently in third place in the money list, Masters hero Angel Cabrera. The admirable Argentinian already has a superb record in this event, winning in 2005 and finishing runner-up twice this century. On that basis, [18.5] is again a very reasonable pre-tournament quote. However, while I could easily back him to win this week, on past form I rather doubt Cabrera will win the money list as he's rarely maintained consistent form throughout the whole summer.

As for the other serious Race to Dubai candidates, it's important to remember that these are still early days. The eventual winner will earn more than three million euros, so even Casey is only just over a third of the way towards the required tally. No reason to panic just yet, then, for backers of Henrik Stenson, Lee Westwood, Padraig Harrington or even my other pick, Ross Fisher.

Stenson will doubtless have an army of supporters after that superb victory at Sawgrass, but while it was impossible not to be mightily impressed with his final round there, a word of caution must be stressed about this week's venue. He too should be favoured by the course playing at its longest, but the Swede's previous form at Wentworth leaves much to be desired. Apart from a never challenging 8th in 2007, he's never made the top-10 here.

One other player takes the eye both for this week, and the longer term money list market. Given how much money he's earned in the last 18 months, it seems incredible that Oliver Wilson has yet to win a title. Seeing as he started 2008 as an unconsidered 100/1+ chance for most tournaments, he must have strong claims to being the most improved player in the world. Wilson finished a respectable 11th on last year's money list, and this time around he's up to fifth, which makes me wonder just what might happen if and when he finally breaks his duck.

Though Wilson has made some mistakes when in contention, not least in this event last year, I don't think it's fair to write him off as a 'bottler' just yet. I know it's a cliche, but it's very possible that once his luck finally turns, he'll quickly follow up with more titles. So seeing as he's already close to the lead, and has a strong chance this week, [36.0] could well offer some value as a trade over the summer.