Race To Dubai / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Forget majors misery and look ahead to the money list battles, says Paul Krishnamurty, who can find little to separate Westwood, Fisher, Kaymer, Casey and McIlroy in their contest to be no.1.

For what is certainly the first time in living memory, it's a relief to see the back of this year's majors. In a year full of unbelievable golf results, the final major champion of the season traded at [1000.0] in-running to complete a clean sweep of 100/1+ winners. The average pre-tournament price of the four champions was something like [400.0].

Lets be fair to Y E Yang though; that result wasn't quite the miracle that some of the Sky commentators made out. He'd beaten Tiger head-to-head before, and had already won on the PGA Tour this year. I was glad to read that my fellow columnist Steve Rawlings backed him in-running, as he's mentioned the Korean many times before at silly prices.

Sunday's action was remarkably similar to the last PGA held at Hazeltine in 2002. Then, Tiger also pulled away from the rest with one rank outsider, Rich Beem. Like Yang, Beem produced the round of his life under the most intense pressure, and achieve what so many more famous players have repeatedly failed to do in getting the better of Tiger Woods in the final round of a major. Whatever happens from here, Yang thoroughly deserves his moment in the limelight.

It may have been exciting and impressive, but that was little consolation for most punters, especially those who saw Woods as a money-buying option over the weekend. Understandably so, given his prior record in contention. Nevertheless, we must move on. There is much top-class golf to look forward to over the next couple of months and numerous opportunities to claw back any losses.

Next week sees the beginning of the Fedex Cup play-off series, with four top-class events and eye-watering prize money. Indeed, this week's Wyndham Championship takes on extra importance as the last qualifying event for that lucrative bonanza. Watch out in particular for players around the 125th place cut line who will surely be ultra-focused on the task in hand.

That promises to be a good betting heat, though arguably a lot less exciting than the inaugural Race to Dubai on the European Tour. Recent events have really opened this up, with five obvious candidates all closely matched. Until a fortnight ago, I was sitting pretty after pre-season trades on Paul Casey and Ross Fisher. However, Casey's substantial lead has suddenly disappeared, after an injury forced him to miss the last two lucrative events.

Brilliant young German Martin Kaymer has now overtaken him, and after sharing third place at Hazeltine, Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy are hot on their heels. Only €350,000 separate the top-four; a figure which can be made up with one decent win between now and the end of the race in November. Currently on Betfair, all four of them trade around the [7.0] mark, with Fisher around [10.0].

Strangely, this is a market where a decent case could be made for backing any or all of the front five. Much will be decided by the five lucrative events in October and November, which could yet see somebody come from well off the pace, but in the meantime the 'big-five' have a chance to build up a daunting lead.

A key factor in the weeks ahead is going to be players' choice of schedule, as the Fedex Cup is too rich to ignore. That doesn't bode well for Casey's chances, even if he does recover from injury, as he is by far the best placed on the current Fedex Cup points list. That list is cut after each play-off, and he looks likely to play at least the first three events. I doubt we'll see him on the European Tour again before October.

For me, Westwood and Fisher looks the ones to follow right now. Their prominent standing, despite failing to win an event this year, is testament to their consistency. Both play primarily in Europe, whereas McIlroy and Kaymer are ever increasing their US schedule. So as I've already backed Fisher at much higher, my next move is to add Westwood to my Race to Dubai portfolio at [7.0].

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