Sad demise of the 'Big Easy' could play into the hands of the savvy punter

Profile / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ernie Els is looking distinctly vulnerable these days, and is suffering from a disastrous vein of form. Paul Krishnamurty reckons you can take advantage of the masses' fondness for reputations as the big South African arrives in Florida.

The saddest sight of what was an otherwise most enjoyable break from the norm at last week's WGC Matchplay was the sorry performance of Ernie Els. Given his poor previous tournament record, it was no shock to see Jonathan Byrd take his scalp on the opening day. Rather it was Els' performance and demeanour during that drubbing that left the distinct impression of a player in crisis. And this follows on from another uninspring effort amongst significantly inferior opposition in the Indian Masters.

I'm not so sure any deficiencies are technical, rather the greater concern is that he's struggling psychologically. Just before Christmas, Ernie suffered what may go down as the biggest final-hole turnaround in Betfair history to lose the Alfred Dunhill Championship, having trading heavily at [1.01]. Many punters could have been forgiven for never trusting him again, after scoring a triple-bogey on a par-5 when needing just a 6. In the subsequent interviews, Ernie took it like a man and seemed content to just put it down to one of those freakish things. At the time I thought this was fair enough - after all he'd played well enough for the previous 71 holes.

Now though, with Ernie's recent collapse to Tiger Woods in Dubai fresh in the mind, I'm not so sure. On that occasion four weeks ago, Els looked extremely uncomfortable down the back nine, spraying iron shots and missing short putts. There was a visible decline in his golf when the pressure was on, whereas in the past he'd generally been renowned for calmness. Looking back further, I remember having similar thoughts on the final day of last year's Open Championship, USPGA and Dunhill Links.

There is an obvious comparison to be made with Retief Goosen's decline, though only up to a point. When Goosen started to struggle last year, opposing him for top-5 and top-10 finishes became something of a goldmine. Because of his longer-term reputation, Goosen was still regularly amongst the market leaders on the European Tour for some while. And similarly Els still starts favourite for any event that doesn't include Woods or Mickelson, a position very hard to justify considering that he hasn't won a strokeplay event outside South Africa since recovering from a troublesome knee injury in 2005. Its now four years since Els last won on the PGA Tour.

The problem with that comparison, and indeed for market makers, is that even at way below his best Ernie retains a high level of consistency. In India, he still finished 6th and had anyone else finished 3rd to Woods in Dubai it would have been deemed a successful week. Even during these recent lean seasons, he has a record most other pros would envy. Since the knee injury, he's missed only one cut anywhere in the world and made the top-20 in over half of his PGA Tour events. Outside of the States, he's remained a serious contender for the Order of Merit and won a seventh World Matchplay title last October.

Rather like Greg Norman before him though, Ernie is running out of time if he's going to win that elusive first Green Jacket before he retires. In honesty, and it may be pure romanticism on my part, I could never completely write him off at Augusta. At his best, there are very few better players of that course over the past 20 years and he would surely already have a Masters title to his name were it not for Tiger's presence. The fact remains that, in the unlikely event of Tiger giving anyone else a chance in 7 weeks time, Ernie remains one of the likeliest beneficiaries.

Nevertheless, I can't have him as favourite this week in the Honda Classic where his current odds are just [15.0]. For the next few weeks the PGA Tour is based in Florida, a state where Ernie's record in recent years is very poor by his own standards. He hasn't made the top-5 once there this century, across a variety of courses. He's already at a disadvantage making his course debut at PGA National, and considering that last year's top-4 here all started at three-figure odds I think this must represent a good week to be getting after the favourite. Obviously laying at [15.5] has its limitations, but [4.4] and [2.6] for top-5 and top-10 finishes also look well worth taking on.