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Is Ernie the new Greg Norman?

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Paul Krishnamurty looks at the similarities between the two players and tells us why he's backing him this week to win on a links course

Many years ago when Ernie Els was just beginning to emerge as a world-class golfer, a famous sports betting journalist - who shall remain nameless - kick-started quite a debate with a provocative article accusing the Big Easy of being a 'bottler'. I'd like to think that writer ate several large slices of humble pie when Ernie went on to win three Major Championships and six World Matchplay titles, but even to a massive Els fan like me, the question has never completely gone away.

The first rule of successful gambling is separating your heart from your head. Apart from Arsenal FC, the only situation I've ever found this to be a problem has been where Ernie is concerned. Not only does he come across as a first-rate bloke, all of those three Majors were massive betting results for me. Though he's let me down on many other occasions, I remain eternally grateful both for the entertainment and the wins. But as time has passed and the victories become scarcer - he hasn't won outside his native South Africa since 2005 - I've become increasingly convinced that Ernie is the new Greg Norman. A supremely talented, popular individual who, for all his success, will be remembered as somebody who could have won so much more.

On a superficial level, there's an obvious parallel in so far as both of these charismatic players can bank on tremendous support and popularity wherever they play around the world. Statistically too, their career records bear remarkably close resemblance. Norman won 67 times during his career, Els has 52 so far with at least another five years at the top. Ernie has won three Majors, one more than Norman, but its hard to forget the near-misses.

Besides his two Open victories, The Shark famously finished runner-up in seven different Major Championships and made the top-five on ten further occasions. In this respect, Ernie's record is almost identical - six times finishing runner-up plus eleven other top-fives. In fairness to Ernie, he's never suffered any disasters in Majors comparable to Norman's heartbreak at the hands of Bob Tway, Larry Mize or Nick Faldo. In 2001, he was unfortunate enough to finish second in three consecutive Majors, two of which were behind Tiger Woods at his invincible best. However in those and so many other situations, the impression has been left that where Ernie has come up just short, Tiger would have found the necessary extra birdie or two over the closing holes.

And here may lie the crux of the argument. Ernie has not only been very unfortunate to be at his peak in the same era as Woods, but he clearly seems to lack the psychological strength of Tiger. It would be grossly unfair to accuse Els of being a bottler when he has won so much and often in nerveless fashion. He has however been prone to costly lapses in concentration at crucial times, most memorably when blowing seemingly unassailable leads to Jarrod Moseley, Lian-wei Zhang and Robert-Jan Derksen. Even when winning the 2002 Open at Muirfield, he very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. I can only conclude that if he possessed anything like Tiger's incredible will-to-win, Els would have won twice as many Majors and many more tournaments.

Bearing all of this in mind, this week's Dunhill Links Championship represents a typical conundrum. I've long argued that Els is the premier links exponent in the world, including Woods. He's made the top-4 in six of the last eight Opens, as well as ten top-10s from 18 attempts, never finishing outside the top-30. Given Ernie's phenomenal links record prices around 12 look tremendous trading value, as he would normally start around these odds in the considerably more competitive Open which would include Tiger Woods. His Dunhill record is similarly consistent, making the top-7 on four from five attempts. Yet despite such consistency he's never won it, and has won just the single Open - in other words he has one win from 23 attempts on links courses.

Only a very brave man would lay double-figure odds though, because if he's anywhere near the lead in Scotland over the weekend, we can be certain Ernie will take a sizeable portion out of the book. So yet again, I'll be making sure I'm on side with my favourite player from the start, but I will without question be trading out for a profit if and when I can lay back at less than 2.5 in-running.