How long before superstar McIlroy joins the major-winning club?

Profile / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty assesses Rory McIlroy's chances at Augusta and the British Open.

British golf fans have a new hero, though I have to admit that for the moment I'm more concerned with kicking myself at missing out on a very obvious imminent winner at a decent price. Having chosen the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic as the scene of his first professional win, Rory McIlroy has very much arrived on the world golf scene. And unlike our recent best hopes - nearly men like Monty, Westwood and Rose - nobody seriously doubts he has the talent to become world no.1, win many Majors and become a genuine golfing legend.

I'm loathe to encourage wild early expectations, but its impossible to avoid speculating as McIlroy's achievements at just 19 years of age are simply incredible. In less than 18 months as a professional, Rory has reached No.16 in the world rankings, up from 172 as recently as last August, despite not playing a single tournament in the States. Punters have latched on to his enormous potential, with McIlroy already matched below [30.0] for both the Masters and British Open. His next event will be his US, and WGC debut, at the Accenture World Matchplay in three weeks, for which I expect his pre-tournament odds to again be in the mid-thirties.

But would success in these events be asking too much in just his second full season, and how quickly did other emerging superstars break through at the very highest level?

In my view comparisons can only be made over the past 25 years, during which the number of potential big event winners has grown exponentially. During that period, only four players were almost immediately labelled as future superstars in the same way as McIlroy; Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia.

If Tiger is the benchmark then those odds are perfectly realistic, as he won the Masters in his first full professional season at the age of 21. McIlroy is a much better player than Woods was at 19, but however good Rory is, comparisons with the great man are dangerous. The point with Woods is less his undoubted natural talent; rather it is the combination of talent, temperament, determination and genius ability to produce special moments when they are most needed. Only the very greatest sportsmen possess those attributes, and Woods is arguably the greatest of the lot. Before he came along, it was widely assumed that nobody could ever dominate such a competitive sport again, and its perfectly feasible that nobody challenges Woods' majors tally ever again.

Nevertheless, Tiger is already aware that he has another young rival to worry about, and invited McIlroy to play in his Target Challenge event back in 2007. The fact that Rory politely declined that offer, stressing that it would interrupt with his European schedule, suggests he won't be star-struck and start getting ahead of himself.

Though nowhere near as quickly as Woods, Ernie didn't take too long to justify his reputation as a youngster. He actually turned pro in 1989, but didn't appear in Europe until the 1992 season. In that first season, he made the top-five in the Open, and followed up with sixth the following year. By the middle of 1994 Els was a major winner, landing the US Open at Oakmont.

Similarly, two years at the highest level is the kind of time span I'm expecting it will take for Rory to properly mature. Winning in the States is a huge leap, especially the majors. However much I rate him, I wouldn't dream of taking odds around [30.0] for the Masters. First-timers simply don't win at Augusta. That course is just too tough, and requires a few years of learning.

But, like Els, McIlroy is such a natural at links golf that the Open is a possibility already. In fact, I've already taken [65.0] and have no intention on laying back just yet because another couple of wins could see his odds tumble well below [20.0] for this year's Turnberry renewal.

However, for all this optimism, the major experiences of Mickelson and Garcia should serve as a warning about placing too many early expectations on McIlroy. Mickelson carried a big reputation into the professional ranks, and had already won a PGA event as an amateur. Within a couple of years he had become a regular contender in the most prestigious events, yet it took until 2004 for Lefty to win the Masters and shed the 'Best Player Never To Win A Major' tag.

And then there's the current holder of that dubious honour. Garcia is the only player I've ever seen produce comparable brilliance to McIlroy as a teenager. In fact, he was better. Garcia broke through almost immediately, winning twice in his first few months on the European Tour, finishing a heroic second to Woods in the USPGA and starring in a Ryder Cup. Yet, ten years later and Sergio is still waiting for his first major.