Golf Betting: Is it time to get on the Anthony Kim bandwagon?

Profile / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Despite Canada collapse young American is looking the real deal and can seal his emerging reputation with WGC or USPGA victory...

Apologies in advance to anyone who, like me, backed Anthony Kim in Canada last week.

Having traded as low as [1.5] before falling apart on Sunday, eventually failing to make the top-5, this may not seem the best time to be praising Kim to the skies. Often though in betting, the best time to strike is when your selection is on a temporary downer. When leading the tournament, Kim's odds for next week's USPGA Championship shortened to a low of [16.0]. One round later and he's back to ten points bigger at [26.0].

On the face of it, those odds don't sound particularly attractive about a player in his second professional season who has only played in four previous majors. Then again, calculating the price of somebody with Kim's potential and hot recent form is no straightforward task. I remember arguing what terrible value Tiger Woods was early in his career when generally around the 6/1 mark, but as we've seen since the correct odds were at least half that quote.

Kim isn't Tiger, but he is clearly a player of very serious potential. In my view, the only player with comparable potential for the years to come is Martin Kaymer. Though the German has also won twice already this season, he's some way behind at this stage. In fact, on the last couple of months form, only Kenny Perry has been as impressive as the 23 year-old from Los Angeles. Only a very small number of golfing legends have made this big an impact so early in their career. Of the current crop, the only ones who broke through almost immediately were Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia.

If he had closed the deal on Sunday, Kim would have won three of his last seven events, all of which were high-class affairs. There was nothing in either of those previous wins to suggest he was a 'bottler', so the most sensible reaction to his Canadian flop must be to dismiss it as one of those things. Every player has made a fool of themselves on the final day before.

The most impressive aspect of Kim's form has been that he has produced it on the toughest golf courses. Great prospects often look superb on target golf courses only to bomb when tested with a course that challenges every aspect of their game. See how Adam Scott remains a 'prospect' well into his late-20s for instance.

Kim, though, has peaked on the best courses. Quail Hollow is a course that would grace a major championship, and the field for the Wachovia Championship is always one of the strongest of the year, where all bar one of the previous winners was a major champion. Yet Kim belied the venue's tough reputation to comfortably win his first PGA event by five shots. And for his second victory at Congressional, he tamed a course that has hosted several majors.

His Open Championship debut was equally impressive. It was reported that Birkdale was the first time Kim had played links golf, which makes his top-10 finish an incredible achievement. Few can remember a tougher examination in a major than presented by Birkdale this year, which should have meant big trouble for such an inexperienced player. As it turned out, Kim hit more greens in regulation than anyone else in the field and held a decent chance of winning through till the closing holes. As he's got bags of improvement to come when gaining more experience of links, I rate him a very likely future Open champion.

This form on tough golf courses is a positive pointer for the next few weeks. Starting with this week's WGC event and the following USPGA, six of the next seven weeks will be played on 'proper' courses. Certainly we can expect the first two venues, Firestone and Oakland Hills, to favour those with the very best long games. If Kim can maintain his superb recent tee to green efforts, it could be a long time before we see these sort of odds again.

How short could his price go for the USPGA? Without Tiger, there's definitely a vacuum amongst the market leaders. Any one of about 15 players could quickly become second favourite behind Mickelson were they to hit peak form at the right time. See for instance how Lee Westwood went from being a [130.0] chance at the US Open to below [20.0] for the Open a few weeks later.

Were Kim to finish in the top-5 at Firestone, I doubt he'll trade much above [20.0] at Oakland Hills. And if he wins, perhaps Mickelson will have company.