Profile / Tareq Quiroz / 17 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

TQ just cannot have Rory McIlroy as the clear favourite for this week's Dubai World Championship. Here's why

We sure have covered a lot of air miles in the inaugural Race to Dubai but I am pleased to announce that we have finally arrived. All that is left is to crown the worthy winner. Any one of four can still win and unsurprisingly it is a very strong European quartet.

Current market leader is young star Rory McIlroy. This 20-year-old from Northern Ireland is some player. He has all the facets to be in the world's best for the next 20 years. However, he has yet to prove he knows how to win.

Sure, he landed the Dubai Desert Classic but three over for his last four holes to scrape home by one didn't do much to convince me he is a natural winner. For one so young to have won on tour is a marvellous achievement but we are being forced to see past his age now. His game will only improve in minuscule amounts from here on in but it doesn't have to to compete at the top. What he does need to do is get into the winning habit.

His record this year smacks of consistency and people will point to all his top five finishes, which officially stands at 11 top fives yet only one win. Am I nitpicking? No. That record is a mixture of poor conversions of good winning chances and also a flattering flying finish. With the game that Rory has, to finish with a final round 65 to place third or fourth is great for your rankings but in truth the win was never in sight on many of those top fives.

So why then does he start almost every event he plays as the clear favourite including this of all weeks? He has one tour win to his name, yet faces a field in Dubai that is littered with players who have achieved far more. A quick look at the market shows him not just slight jolly but clear market leader at odds of [10.0]. I see no value there, especially with such a strong field.

The kid is the real deal talent wise but unless he starts getting in that winner's circle on a regular basis then you can't justifiably back him pre-tournament. Let's face it, he doesn't even offer the best trading opportunities either as his first round is often not good enough to merit a price drop. Coming with a wet sail to snatch a place looks real pretty but I am looking for winners.

I am not saying McIlroy can't win in Dubai this week, but I am saying he won't. I am yet to see the steely glint in the eye in the heat of the battle. Compare Rory with Simon Dyson for a moment. Talent wise Dyson will never have the game that Rory has. But if you had to give me one of them coming down the stretch of a tournament I would pick the Enlgishman. McIlroy may yet develop that steel in the next couple of years but until he does I won't be going near him at such diabolically cramped odds in such a class field.

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