The Betfair Contrarian: Why Robert Karlsson does not win the European Order of Merit

Order of Merit / The Betfair Contrarian / 29 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betfair suggests the Swede has an 80% chance of landing the Order of Merit but there's one man willing to oppose Karlsson in his seemingly unstoppable path to becoming Europe's no.1 golfer.

If you were foolish enough to ignore the Contrarian last week when he told you that the New Orleans Saints would beat the San Diego Chargers at Wembley, then don't make the same mistake twice. In the battle to top the European Order of Merit, Robert Karlsson ([1.22]) is in control of his own destiny with Padraig Harrington needing to win the Volvo Masters at Valderrama to overhaul him. The odds are stacked in Karlsson's favour but the Contrarian is adamant that the Swede will throw it away. Here's why:

Harrington has a good record at Valderrama
Unlike Karlsson, Padraig Harrington has been victorious in the Volvo Masters in the past, winning the tournament in 2001. He has impressed at Valderrama in recent years, finishing inside the top four in both 2006 and 2007. The Volvo Masters is also a tournament that golfers from the UK and Ireland traditionally do well in - five of the last seven winners (including one joint-winner) hail from these shores.

Swedish success is limited on the European Tour
Nine different countries have produced winners of the European Order of Merit but Sweden is not one of those. Only one Swede - Fredrik Jacobson in 2003 - has won the Volvo Masters before and on that occasion the European Order of Merit had already been secured by Ernie Els prior to the event and some of the big names such as Sergio Garcia, Jose Maria Olazabal and Colin Montgomerie underperformed. Last year at Valderrama, Karlsson finished 11th and was a full seven strokes behind Harrington. In 2006, Karlsson had an outside chance of winning the Order of Merit at Valderrama but could only manage to tie 21st.

Harrington was in a similar position two years ago and triumphed
Harrington went into the Volvo Masters behind Paul Casey in the 2006 Order of Merit but ended up trumping the Englishman by the most slender of margins. In a thrilling finale, Casey's performance was affected after he contracted food-poisoning which meant that if Harrington came second, he would overtake him in the Order of Merit. It looked like the Irishman was going to miss out and tie for third until Sergio Garcia bogeyed on the final hole, and that meant Harrington finished ahead of him.

The lead changed hands at last year's Volvo Masters too
Last year was the second in succession where the golfer who led the Order of Merit going into the Volvo Masters didn't end up victorious. Els, the leader, opted to play in Singapore on the Asian Tour instead of playing at Valderrama which allowed Justin Rose the chance to steal with a top-three finish in Spain. Rose did even better than that, winning the event in a play-off.

The standings are deceptive
A major reason why Karlsson is ahead of Harrington in the standings isn't because he is a better golfer, it's because he has contested almost twice as many events. Karlsson has won €2,695,248 from 22 events compared to Harrington's €2,397,823 from 13. That means Karlsson averages €122,511 an event, way less than Harrington's average of €184,447.

There is less pressure on Harrington
Karlsson will also be aware that this is his best chance to win the Order of Merit while Harrington has won before so will not share the same desperation that can sometimes force errors. The Times golf correspondent John Hopkins has referenced the fact that Karlsson has been a nearly man in the past: "He was once known as a man who could not finish off when a tournament victory beckoned. In May and June he had three thirds, a second and a fourth, for example." While he feels Karlsson has improved that part of his game in recent months, this will be the true test.