Order of Merit: Jimenez may have struck gold but he's an unlikely OOM winner

Order of Merit / Paul Krishnamurty / 27 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty wonders who is going to step up to the plate and dominate European golf for the next few years

Following the season's flagship European Tour event and with over half the season gone, the race for the Order of Merit looks more wide open than any in living memory. Miguel-Angel Jiminez's victory on Sunday has propelled him to a sizeable 300,000 Euro lead, with his play-off victim Oliver Wilson the nearest challenger.

Already matched as high as [120.0], 44 year-old Jiminez is bidding to become the oldest money list winner ever. The market hasn't over-reacted though, with current odds of [9.0] suggesting few punters are confident of his ability to retain that lead through until November.

That could prove a dangerous assumption given that the European scene has a distinctly different, wide-open feel to it this year. In most previous years, the money list has been a fairly predictable affair, dominated by a handful of top players who'd pulled well clear of the chasing pack. This time nobody looks likely to pull away, with at least 30 within reasonable striking distance. We can see this on a weekly basis, as single-figure favourites seem a thing of the past. At Wentworth, even with the presence of world stars Ernie Els and Vijay Singh, nobody started at less than [17.0].

I'm split between two schools of thought to explain this new reality. On the one hand it demonstrates the ever greater strength in depth in European golf. This is unquestionable; there are now dozens of plausible Ryder Cup representatives capable of making swift improvement in a short space of time.

Consider Sunday's runner-up Wilson. Outside hardcore golf followers, Oliver was a virtual unknown just a few months ago. Perhaps he still is. He has only very recently begun starting events at less than [100.0]. Nor has he been lucky, having finished runner-up three times. Such a rapid rise from obscurity must give tremendous hope to at least 50 other European pros.

Alternatively, a less upbeat analysis is that the current standings are indicative of a wider failure amongst the leading Europeans to step up to the plate. There are six in the world's top-20, yet only Padraig Harrington has won a major this century. Indeed, the early part of the Noughties saw the OOM dominated by overseas stars Ernie Els and Retief Goosen largely on the back of their major earnings. Justin Rose won last year despite only a handful of starts this side of the Atlantic. As Els and Goosen have slipped into decline, there is no consistently world-class standard-bearer on the tour.

At present, most of the top-class Europeans seem to lack winning instinct. Sunday's villain Robert Karlsson, for instance, has destroyed a long-earned reputation as a reliable front-runner twice this season. Lee Westwood was bitterly disappointing at Wentworth, and must be stretching the patience of his supporters. And the two class acts I've already tipped up for this, Henrik Stenson and Padraig Harrington, haven't troubled the judges lately. Luckily with so few others in form, their positions haven't greatly deteriorated and their odds have stabilised.

Hopefully chances will arise for them in the weeks to come and there is a very long way to go. The lowest winning tally this century was just under €2.4M, Jiminez has only 1.3M so far. Its very much in his favour that he plays a comprehensive European schedule, (to date, Jiminez has played twice as many counting events as Harrington), but equally he will surely have to win at least one more tournament. However, if none of the big names win soon those odds of [9.0] will have to shorten, and I certainly wouldn't be a layer.

The next stop is Wales, at a venue where Jiminez is a former champion. However, 'The Mechanic' will surely face a very tough task attempting to win back to back. Harrington starts favourite for the event, and has a decent chance of prospering in likely bad weather. This week's winner will pocket €376,000, a tidy sum that would dramatically advance anyone's position, but Wilson is the only competitor capable of overtaking Jiminez.

Though I respect his current odds of [9.0] as a decent short-term trade, I still don't see Jiminez as a particularly likely OOM winner. But given the lack of a convincing alternative, the only prudent way of opposing him right now is to pick out lively outsiders. For instance, I like Martin Kaymer's chances this week, and a win would put him into the top-three so he makes a small amount of appeal at [34.0].