Order of Merit Betting: Schedule changes make Stenson the value

Order of Merit / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 February 2008 / 1 Comments

The current price of 7.4 offers good trading on the talented Swede, says Paul Krishnamurty

Some interesting news emerged over the weekend that could have profound implications for the destination of this year's European Tour money list, aka the Volvo Order of Merit.

Citing a need to break from the routine of frequent long-haul travel between Dubai, Europe and America, Henrik Stenson has dramatically cut his PGA Tour commitments in order to shorten his schedule and focus on Europe. He claims his plan is to play 25 tournaments this year, six fewer than 2007, with just nine across the Atlantic.

No doubt those nine include the six US-based majors and World Golf Championships events, all of which count towards the OOM. In 2007, he finished fourth after playing in 17 counting events but with the new schedule he is intending to play in around 22 this time. That's quite an advantage when considering that Justin Rose won last year playing just 12 events.

Let's not forget that last year's fourth was in many ways a disappointment. After wins against world-class fields in the Dubai Desert Classic and WGC Matchplay, Stenson establised a big early lead in the money list. Most commentators were touting him as the 'next big thing' and the Swede started the Masters trading at less than [30.0].

However, despite the hype, a very poor summer enabled others to overhaul that early lead, and by the time he started to find his form again Stenson only held an outside chance of catching Justin Rose and Padraig Harrington. It seems from Stenson's comments that the gruelling transatlantic schedule offer a partial explanation, though he neglected to mention another event that must have had a massive effect on his life - the birth of his first child.

Opinion is split over the 'Nappy Factor' - the effect the birth of a player's child has on their game. Some, such as golf tipster Keith Elliott, point to the immediate improvement in the form of Phil Mickelson and Trevor Immelman following the arrivals of their respective first-born. Alternatively though, Ernie Els and Lee Westwood suffered temporary blips in form when they first became parents.

My feeling is that it's pointless trying to look for an overarching theory here about a set of players who all have their own individual characteristics. In Stenson's case though, there's no doubt that his form was well below par for a couple of months afterwards. It also easy to imagine how an inexperienced player such as Stenson might struggle to juggle a hectic globe-trotting schedule with such an upheaval.

Having returned to his best over the last three weeks of the 'Middle East Swing' to move into second place in the Order of Merit, hopefully he can sustain his form throughout the whole season this time now he has less distraction. The next big counting event is the WGC Matchplay in a fortnight, where Stenson is the defending champion. While it would be asking a lot to replicate last season's heroics, the venue seems to favour the long-hitters which should at least offer the chance of a good run in that lucrative knock-out event.

Ultimately though, recent history suggests performances in the majors will be pivotal. As with Els and Goosen's four OOM wins earlier this century, Rose and Harrington emerged at the top of the 2007 list largely on the back of their performances in the majors. Now he's more focussed on Europe, Stenson is fancied to earn more than these rivals in the weekly counting events and could particularly enjoy an advantage during the Fedex Cup play-off bonanza when everyone else heads to the States. Nevertheless, he'll need to improve his Majors record to be confident of finishing in front at the end of the year.

Augusta offers the best chance, with its par-fives and emphasis on driving distance. Stenson was in contention last year for a long way before slipping to 17th. Torrey Pines, the US Open venue, is also a track for the long-hitters. As these are the first two majors of the year, odds of [7.4] represent a good value trade to monitor over the coming months.

Comments (1)

1. Peter | 05 February 2008

   The 'Nappy factor' has not done Tiger much harm and I hope it benefits Stenson as well. I backed Stenson to win the Order of Merit at the start of this year because I watched an interview with him on Setanta where he indicated that he will be travelling less this year and playing more in Europe. The question in my mind is whether his improved form in the gulf recently is simply because he likes playing there or is it an overall return to form which will now continue. I think it's the latter.