Order of Merit / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Paul Krishnamurty assesses the chances of [1.25] chance Robert Karlsson being overhauled as the Swede seeks his first Order title.

As we enter the final week of the 2007-2008 season, odds of [1.25] would appear to suggest that Robert Karlsson has the Order of Merit wrapped up. In my view it would be a travesty if anyone else were to win after Karlsson's phenomenally consistent year, but a look at this week's prize fund and recent history should remind us that this race retains the potential to produce another twist.

The last two Order of Merits have remained very much alive until the final day. Last year the two main contenders, Justin Rose and Padraig Harrington, both held winning chances on the final day before Rose emerged as Europe's leading player. And in 2006, Paul Casey traded at [1.1] before being pipped by the tiniest of margins by Harrington in a contest decided by events in the final group on the 72nd green concerning other players.

Three players still hold a mathematical chances of catching Karlsson although Miguel-Angel Jiminez needs a miracle. Harrington is 300,000 euros down in second place, with Lee Westwood a further 170,000 behind. These may sound like daunting deficits, but less so when considering that this week's Volvo Masters winner will take home €708,000. Further hope lies in the fact that the man increasingly known as 'Sir Bob' in betting circles has never really got the hang of this notoriously tough course. In six visits to Valderrama, the Swede's best finish is just ninth.

Of course the flipside of that argument is that on the evidence of virtually all 2008 evidence, he will better that position. Karlsson's last 11 starts in Europe have yielded two wins, eight top-fours, and he's only twice finished outside the top-seven. Everything suggests he's going to set a very tough target, and that the chasers will almost certainly have to win the title this week to catch him.

Having already advised bets on Harrington, Henrik Stenson and Martin Kaymer at various stages of the year, my last advice was to lay Harrington at [1.8] ahead of the lucrative run of events at the end of the season. The result is that my book is exactly level on everyone bar Harrington, who still yields a profit. I'm not brimming with confidence though.

Its hard to make a case for Pod on anything shown since his second consecutive major at the USPGA. In truth, he owes his prominent position almost entirely to those heroics in the majors, and has rarely looked interested outside of those weeks. Nevertheless, only a fool would write off such a class player and proven champion as the title of European No.1 is surely one that matters to him. And having finished second and fourth in the past two years, he clearly knows his way around Valderrama.

Though he could win the event and still not top the Order of Merit, Westwood is well capable of giving Karlsson a run for his money yet. Its a tribute to Lee's tremendous consistency in what has been his best season in ages that he is still in contention for the money list despite failing to win a single event. His earnings owe much to top-three finishes in the US Open and WGC Bridgestone Invitational, but five other top-threes this season have also helped accumulate the cash.

That lack of a title this season must rankle with this formerly prolific winner, and he would obviously love to take this last chance to correct matters. Valderrama offers a tremendous opportunity, as outside a couple of years earlier this century when his game was in crisis, Westwood has been a rock of consistency there. His overall record from eight visits reads twice runner-up and six top-seven finishes.

However, it's crucial to remember that Westwood is much better value at [19.0] in the tournament outright market than the Order of Merit. Because he currently trails Karlsson by nearly €500,000, even if he claims the €708,000 first prize, Karlsson could still overhaul him with a top-three finish.