Order of Merit / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 September 2008 / Leave a comment

Despite two major victories, the Irishman has been a gift to layers this season, says Paul Krishnamurty.

So far this season, I've written several pieces on the race for the Order of Merit, building a book that includes Henrik Stenson at [8.0], Padraig Harrington at [11.0].
and Martin Kaymer at [34.0]. After struggling for a long way, Harrington's consecutive Major titles have propelled him to a E460,000 lead and odds of [1.8].

Harrington is certainly in a very strong position, but history should have taught us by now that last few weeks of the Order of Merit usually sees many twists and turns. You have to go back to 2004 to find the last time this was settled ahead of the lucrative final event of the season, the Volvo Masters.

Historic parallels also suggest that Ireland's finest will need quite a few more thousand euros to seal the deal. His current total of 2.35M is still some 600,000 shy of Justin Rose's winning total last year, which was close to the average required total this century. There are still seven counting events left, with very big prizes available for the Dunhill Links and Volvo Masters.

Harrington would seem certain to start favourite for the Dunhill Links, where he has won twice before, but examination of his form outside the Majors in 2008 suggests its far from certain we'll see him in peak form at St Andrews. Quite remarkably, his earnings have come almost entirely from just four events, especially consecutive Majors wins in the Open and USPGA. He's made it clear that his season now revolves around those showpieces and who can blame him? This summer's heroics have transformed his status in world golf. Come next April and the Masters, Harrington will be the centre of attention as he attempts the very rare feat of a third Major in a row.

None of that should detract from the indisputable fact that, outside those few events, Harrington has been a gift to layers this year. Recent form further supports this argument. Going into the Fedex Cup race he was among the favourites, but dismal performances in the first three events, (form figures MC/MC/55), mean he hasn't even made the final cut of 30.

Having proven his ability to peak at the big events, there are few worries as far as the Ryder Cup is concerned, but there's nothing to say he'll definitely pick up any of the other forthcoming European prizes.

The chasing pack are also all well capable of finishing the season with a flourish. Three of the five chasers with a realistic chance, Miguel Angel Jiminez, Graeme McDowell and Robert Karlsson, would make up big ground if they were to claim the 333,000 first prize at this week's Mercedes Benz Championships. Jiminez, who moved up to second place on the money list at the weekend, would be within striking distance if making the top-2 at Gut Larchenhof.

Along with Harrington, the other two serious contenders take a week off ahead of the Ryder Cup. At [5.6] and [24.0], Lee Westwood and Henrik Stenson look very plausible challengers to Harrington. Both have been far more consistent than Pod over the year, yet have struggled to keep pace in the money list because they've failed to win an event between them.

Westwood really should be closer. He's had numerous golden opportunities this season, and his repeated failure to finish the job led this long-time supporter to wonder last week whether he's lost his bottle Nevertheless, it could just be a matter of luck at crucial times, and as defending champion at the forthcoming British Masters and with a previous Dunhill title already under his belt, Westwood is far from finished for the season.

Stenson could be the best value at current odds though. He can't really be blamed for any specific near-misses this year, and judging by 3rd and 4th places in the last two Majors, the Swede is improving all the time. Bearing in mind Harrington's complete lack of form since the USPGA, I've decided to 'green up' by laying while he's still odds-on, in both hope and anticipation that my existing position on Stenson could yet pay further dividends.