Order of Merit / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Valderrama is the goal for those in the top 60 while Qualifying School looms for anyone outside 115th place on the money list. The Castello Masters offers the last opportunity to pick up valuable euros to move up or down that table - so who can face up to the pressure and who's going to fold?

As we enter the final few weeks of the season, it's crunch time for many, if not most players on the European Tour. The main battle for the Order of Merit will be decided at Valderrama next week, but for most tour regulars this week's Castello Masters represents the last chance to achieve their season's goals.

The most nerve-wracking battle concerns those striving to make the top-115 of the Order of Merit, thereby avoiding the nightmare of Q-School and guaranteeing playing privileges for next season. In the States an almost identical race, (over there the crucial mark is top-125), has galvanised numerous previously struggling players to turn their seasons around. All four of the Fall Series events to date have been won by players on or below 125th place at the start, who have also filled half of the top-5 placings in these events.

So, with such career-changing incentives on the line, will somebody rise to the challenge and turn their season around? In honesty, its hard to be inspired by the names just on the wrong side of the line. You won't have any trouble getting at least [200.0] on any of these characters, and in most cases all history would suggest a bet on the outright market would be throwing money away.

Winning, however, is not essential. A top-5 finish would guarantee a cheque of nearly €90,000, which would be a great boost for up to 20 players currently the wrong side of the cut line, while even a top-10 could be enough for some.

Five players stand out as particularly close to the line, and therefore guaranteed to be striving hard for every available Euro in their final day 2-ball, even if they're not in contention.

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet is the man holding 115th place, with Shiv Kapur, Sam Little, Garry Houston and Fredrik Andersson-Hed close enough to get in with a top-10 in Portugal. Of those, only Andersson-Hed - a very rare winner who has at least enjoyed his share of decent finishes - has ever shown a higher level of form than his position suggests.

For betting purposes, I prefer the claims of the man one place further down, the talented if erratic Portugese player Jose-Felipe Lima. Lima will need to finish top-5 to keep his card, but he has at least made that mark already this month, in a stronger field at the Dunhill Links. Unlike most of his closest rivals, Lima has won tournaments before and is playing now in his favourite European region. At [250.0] to win and [40.0] for a top-5 finish, Lima remains a longshot but worth a speculative punt to produce the goods when he needs it most.

Further up the Order of Merit, the next crucial race is to make the top-60 and earn qualification to next week's lucrative Volvo Masters. With €333,000 going to this week's winner, this place could yet be snatched by a shock winner from way down the list. It's more likely though that this race will concern four or five players currently separated by less than 40,000 euros; the guaranteed cheque for a top-10 finish.

The two players just inside the top-60, Alastair Forsyth and David Lynn, are not safe by any means and will need to fight for every cent even if down the field. Again, their precarious position should be a rock-solid guarantee of a determined effort in Sunday's two-balls.

Their closest challenger is out-of-form Thomas Levet, but the one they have to watch is Simon Dyson.

Currently in 62nd place, the Englishman has had a disappointing summer by his own standards. He'll be desperate to get back to Valderrama, where he nearly won last year and, significantly, registered his highest finish of the summer in seventh place last weekend. [65.0] in the outright market looks a decent speculative trade, and [6.0] to repeat last week's top-10 a solid selection.