Betfair Official Blog

Golf long-shot winners' feature

As any backer will tell you, there is no such thing as a certainty in sport - whatever event you're having a flutter on.

While Tiger Woods has done his best to put a monopoly on tournaments across the world with his brilliance on the golf course, even the modern game's greatest player is not good enough to win every event he enters, as hard as he tries.

And golf has had a tendency to throw up more than its fair share of surprise winners over the years, particularly in the major championships.

From John Daly stunning the golfing world to win the 1991 US PGA Championship after only getting into the tournament as a late replacement, to unknown Americans Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton upstaging proven winners to claim the 2003 and 2004 British Open titles, golf's history is littered with shock victors.

Curtis, playing in his first major, was available at odds of 250/1 at Royal St.George's four years while he could still be backed at 80/1 on the morning of the final day. Meanwhile, Hamilton was trading at 200/1 on his way to beating Ernie Els in a play-off.

Selecting a pre-tournament winner has proved an even harder job for backers so far in 2007, with the European Tour having produced eight first-time winners already this season while the PGA Tour has not been far behind.

The two tournaments on the two tours at the start of this month are a case in point.

Little-known American Mark Wilson could be backed at a massive 1000 on his way to winning the Honda Classic after a four-way play-off, while talented young South African Anton Haig was trading at 500 before going on to clinch the Johnnie Walker Classic.

Of course, selecting a long-priced winner in the build up to an event is no easy task and involves an awful lot of luck, but there is also value to be had for punters who are prepared to wait to see how a tournament unfolds and back players in-running.

Such is the nature of golf, where the lead can rapidly change hands within a matter of seconds and a couple of putts holed or missed, there are big gains that can be made in the in-play market on long-priced players who look out of a tournament at a given stage.

Up against the likes of Woods, Vijay Singh, Davis Love III and Thomas Bjorn, the unfancied Curtis was still trading at 40/1 when he teed off on the final day at The Open.

With the experts adamant that he wouldn't win, they took bets on Curtis including wagers of £1,900 at 40/1, £10,000 at 8/1 and £8,000 at 7/1 so that he was backed all the way down to 11/8.

Few people would have given Geoff Ogilvy a hope of winning last year's US Open, especially with Colin Montgomerie sitting pretty on the 18th fairway, US Masters champion Phil Mickelson also well placed and the Australian off the back of the par-three 17th hole in two.

But Ogilvy proceeded to hole his chip for an unlikely par before also parring the last, while Montgomerie and Mickelson both wilted under the pressure to hand him an unlikely victory.

The odds on some of the leading players at the start of a week are often short and unattractive, and more value may be found by backing them in-running.

The likes of Woods and Ernie Els can never be written off - both have made a habit of coming from off the pace on the final day to win - while a tournament's constantly changing face means it is worth paying attention to players further down the leader board in events.

Nathan Green came from six shots back in November to win the New Zealand Open, and this season's Malaysian Open champion Peter Hedblom was seven strokes adrift at the halfway stage before coming through the field.

It should not be forgotten that Paul Lawrie was ten shots behind going into the final round at the 1999 Open Championship before his amazing victory, as Jean van de Velde famously capitulated on the last hole.

Paul Goydos was matched at a massive 800 before hauling himself into contention and winning the Sony Open earlier this season, but perhaps the best illustration of the value to be found in backing in-play came at last weekend's Singapore Masters.

With the leader board changing all the time, the odds on Nick Dougherty, Simon Dyson, Iain Steel and Liang Wen-Chong fluctuated with every shot that was taken and each player was favourite at one point, before Liang eventually prevailed in a play-off.

With so many first-time winners already in 2007, it would be a big surprise if there weren't more before the end of the season on both major tours, while backers looking to make a killing with a long-priced outsider at a Grand Slam event could do worse than look at the USPGA Championship.

The fourth major of the year has had a knack of producing shock winners in the past - Daly, Bob Tway, Jeff Sluman, Mark Brooks, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel to name a few.