WGC Accenture Matchplay Update - Classic final looks too close to call, so take on Sergio in the consolation match

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Paul Casey is favourite to win his semi against Camillo Villegas, still in progress, and would meet Ian Poulter in an all-English final if he wins it

"Separating whoever contests the 36-hole final is going to be anything but straightforward. This tournament may have a reputation for producing shocks, but there's no doubt in my mind that the best three players of the week are left in."

As we still wait to find out who will face Ian Poulter in the final after Camillo Villegas and Paul Casey's semi-final showdown was postponed till today, Paul Krishnamurty urges us to dodge the final for our betting and take on Sergio Garcia in the consolation match.

While Ian Poulter eased through to today's final in double-quick-time, ensuring plenty of rest ahead of what will be a gruelling 36-hole test, he must still wait to find out who he'll be up against. That's because the other semi between Paul Casey and Camilo Villegas was still locked all square after 23 holes of enthralling golf when darkness fell last night.

That extra time off might seem like an advantage, but in reality I doubt it will make any difference. Both Casey and Villegas are young and fit enough to cope with the marathon schedule, (physically at least although a match like that must take a mental toll). In any case, Casey had played significantly fewer holes than the others on his way to the semi, taking no more than 14 holes to win any of his four previous matches.

Separating whoever contests the 36-hole final is going to be anything but straightforward. This tournament may have a reputation for producing shocks, but there's no doubt in my mind that the best three players of the week are left in. Casey has been nothing short of magnificent throughout, Villegas looks to have his ideal course, and Poulter's heroics mean he has now won more matches in this event over the years than any other European.

Under those circumstances, I can't honestly recommend any bet with great confidence, but I would suggest that anyone following my earlier advice should look to 'green up' on Villegas. When advised at [40.0] alongside three others on Thursday l, we were taking a combined price of around [10.0]. Now [4.7], having touched a low of [2.4] yesterday, there's still plenty of chance to take a profit if you haven't done so already.

The one bet I will be having today is to take on Sergio Garcia in the contest for third place, as he certainly looks weaker than either potential opponent. I've said all week that I didn't fancy Garcia as much of a match player, and while that proved costly in the early stages, he was blown away by Poulter in the semi.