Why I'm backing the early birds in Mallorca...

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 23 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Tough Pula conditions make in-running the sensible play for this week's European Tour, says pro-punter Paul Krishnamurty

Of the dozens of tournaments every year on either side of the Atlantic, each has its own distinctive characteristics. Some courses have generous fairways that favour long hitters, just as some are short and narrow and favour accuracy. But whereas in most tournaments, the focus of the betting community is to spend the early part of the week attempting to solve the puzzle from assessing this sort of data, it can sometimes pay to keep plenty of the betting bank to one side until the tournament has already started. On certain relatively rare occasions, the nature of a course is such that there are consistent trends offering numerous betting angles and strategies to the in-running punter. This week's Mallorca Classic at Pula GC (http://www.pulagolf.com/english/pulagolf_ing.htm) is such an event, and therefore one that I look forward to trading with relish every year.

Played at the short, tricky par-70 course at Pula GC, there are two main factors to consider. First of all, the weather forecast. Generally speaking, having an early tee-time is considered to be an advantage. It means you get to play the greens when they're at they're best, and more or less 24 hours rest and recuperation ahead of playing your second round. But this advantage can be dramatically accentuated if the wind is stronger in the afternoon, making scoring more difficult. Recent years at Pula suggest that this is more often than not the case. Last year for instance, the first seven on the leaderboard after the first round were all among the early starters.

Secondly, the difficulty of the course. Pula was rated the toughest course on the European Tour in 2006, with a winning score of five under and just four players under par. Of course much is due to the wind, but even without it Pula still has plenty of challenges, not least trickery surrounding the greens that places an emphasis on accuracy and makes scrambling very difficult. Consequently, players sitting in the clubhouse having already posted competitive scores will generally see their position improve and odds shorten as the day goes on and the majority of afternoon starters struggle.

Therefore, I shall be adopting a threefold in-running betting strategy this week. First of all, once I know the draw I'll be selecting a few early starters that I fancy to go well for the outright market in the hope that they can establish a prominent position early. Before they start their second round on Friday afternoon, I'll try and lay the stakes back on these players, hopefully leaving a promising position for the weekend.

Secondly, I'll be backing a wider range of early starters in the "First Round Leader" market. Similarly, the round leader market will also be worth monitoriting throughout each day in the tournament, as it won't be easy for the chasing pack to shoot low in the afternoon.

And finally, during each round I'll be backing players who finish early with competitive scores, in particular the clubhouse leader. In my view, its worth backing anyone who is within three of the lead after they've finished their round. Then sit back and watch the later starters struggle, with a view to trading out before your player starts their round the next day. With any luck, I'll be able to lay back all stakes before my selections hit another ball, leaving the only risk that several afternoon starters can defy course history and conditions to transform the leaderboard.