Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 27 February 2009 /

Paul Krishnamurty had a pretty dire day yesterday on the betting front but all is not lost and his sole remaining bet in the outright market is a good guy to still have on board at this stage...

WORLD MATCHPLAY DAY 3 UPDATE

So normal service wasn't resumed then. Faced with an opponent in Tim Clark who didn't flinch under the media glare and pressure of facing the greatest player the game has ever known, Tiger Woods looked distinctly human. Doubtless the post-mortem will now start and premature conclusions will be drawn.

The consequence of Tiger's exit is to leave us with an extremely wide open event at the last-16 stage. It isn't an exaggeration in the least to say anybody left can win. On a personal note, day two was pretty catastrophic, with all three of my match bets going down, and two of my 'Find Me a 100 Winner' selections losing narrowly. All hopes from my pre-tournament bets are now pinned on Ross Fisher.

As I'll explain shortly that may yet not turn out to be such a terrible thing, but the time has still come for me to reconsider the whole draw. The main conclusion is that the betting is too skewed in favour of the top half, with a combined bet on all eight players in that section equating to 1.66. There are numerous strong candidates in there for sure, but there aren't that many permutations where the player that emerges would be shorter than [1.66] in the final.

That suggests to me that the value must lie in leaving the likes of Mickelson, Villegas, Ogilvy, Els, McIlroy and co. to carve each other up, and concentrate on the bottom half, where only three players are currently under [20.0]. A case could well be made for backing all of them, in the hope that a shorter price is available in the final, and I wouldn't put anyone off that strategy.

Two players in particular stand out as good value though, Fisher and Justin Leonard. I simply cannot resist pressing up on Fisher at the huge odds of [32.0], after yesterday's superb display to rout Pat Perez 6 & 5. Without doubt, Jim Furyk will be a very tough opponent but its worth remembering that the former US Open champion has never gone further than this stage in eight previous cracks at the World Matchplay.

On yesterday's form, Fisher would have his number, and probably anyone else in the event for that matter. The Englishman was -6 through 13 holes, as opposed to Furyk's (still impressive) -4 through 16. Furthermore, Ross will enjoy a massive driving distance advantage here; which though not necessarily decisive is still a big psychological boost. [2.24] to win their last-16 match is decent value, but not as much as those crazy outright odds.

I'm also rather surprised to see Leonard trading as high as [23.0]. Few players have been more consistent over the last year on the PGA Tour, so while his next opponent Oliver Wilson played out of his skin to knock out Anthony Kim yesterday, the experienced former British Open champion still rates a strong favourite in my book here. Leonard reached the semi-finals on the other Dove Mountain course last year, despite the layout not particularly favouring his game, and he looks to have every chance of at least emulating that feat.

The only match bet that takes the eye on day 3 is Ernie Els to beat Luke Donald at [1.95]. Unbelievably, in reaching the last-16, this is Ernie's best effort in seven Matchplay attempts on US soil. This may well be because the course layout looks absolutely ideal for Els, with much less emphasis on low scoring than previous venues. Here, a quality short game is absolutely imperative, and there are few players in the history of the game, never mind this field, that are superior in that department.

Els' form over the first two days is overwhelmingly superior. His tally is -9 through 32 holes, compared to Donald's -1 through 38 holes. For my money, that makes [1.95] about the Big Easy a cracking bet.

ADVISED BETS

OUTRIGHT

JUSTIN LEONARD @ 23.0
ROSS FISHER @ 32.0

3RD ROUND MATCH

10pts ERNIE ELS @ 1.95 (VS DONALD)

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