WGC World Match Play Betting: If you're ever going to oppose Tiger, now is the time

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

...and if you follow Paul Krishnamurty's system you could still profit if he loses

Despite scarce recent evidence to support the proposition, there is one undeniable fact that all of us golf punters know to be true - at some stage Tiger Woods will fail to win a golf tournament.

You have to go back over five months and five events for the last Woods defeat in the Deutsche Bank Championship, when finishing second, and if it wasn't for that one 'blip' he'd have won eight on the spin stretching back to last July. So when he does lose, it will only be another momentary blip and Tiger will probably respond by winning another five consecutive events. But he will lose somewhere, of that we can be certain.

And there is plenty to suggest that this week's WGC Match Play represents by far the most likely time for that slip. The chief reason is the tournament format, six rounds of knockout 18-hole matchplay as opposed to the usual 72-hole strokeplay. As we have seen so often over the years, particularly in this event, there is no greater leveller in golf than 18-hole matchplay. Just look at Tiger's moderate record in Ryder and Presidents' Cups, and numerous defeats by lesser mortals at previous World Match Plays. Woods has won this event twice in its nine runnings, but has also lost to lesser lights such as Nick O'Hern (twice), Peter O'Malley and Jeff Maggert.

There are obvious explanations as to why he, not to mention the other big names, are so vulnerable to upsets here. Over a 72-hole strokeplay event, the extra class and consistency of the very best players is more likely to set them apart. Tiger is superior enough, and usually holding enough of a cushion to overcome one bad stretch of holes throughout a tournament. Equally other, lesser players will have their own golden spells during an event before settling back to a balanced position that reflects their overall level over the four days. In matchplay, especially the 18-hole variety, everything is very different. If your opponent finds a hot streak with the putter, or you have a short bad run of holes, the match can very easily slip away in no time.

Now of course Tiger may well win again this week, and even if he does fall a few shots behind then he certainly could not be written off. But because the tournament is a six-round knockout, his price of [4.0] should equate to the same odds as a running accumulator over the six matches, so by implication the average is just [1.26] per match. The chances on him not drifting significantly from that level in-running during at least a couple of those games are very slim, especially upon examination of his potential route to victory.

Tiger's first-round opponent JB Holmes comes here in cracking form having recently won the FBR Open and played well again for seventh at Riviera over the weekend. One of the longest hitters on tour, Holmes should appreciate the demands of this golf course and will be no pushover. After that the draw doesn't get any easier. Awaiting in the second round could well be former Masters winner Mike Weir, who turned Woods over in 18-hole matchplay at last September's Presidents Cup.

Next up is likely to be either another Masters champion in Zach Johnson, former Matchplay champion David Toms or dangerous Aussie Aaron Baddeley. Everything points to three tricky ties just to reach the quarter-finals. After that, whoever he faces will have at least proved themselves in good nick over the week and therefore must command a certain level of respect.

So here's my strategy to make some money if Tiger does get beaten, while hopefully developing a cover position to also profit if he wins. I'm laying Woods pre-tournament at [4.0], lets say for a notional 30 points. Then using the excellent new 'Keep in Play' option in his individual match, I shall place an order to back Woods to beat Holmes in-running at a significantly bigger price than at the start of the match - lets say [2.5] for a notional 20 points.

If Woods loses, I'm guaranteed to make 10 points profit across the two markets. If he drifts to my target price and wins, I'll have 50 points to carry forward to the next match where I will repeat the same, or a similar process. This way, if Woods were to drift to [2.5] in just two of the six matches I'd be almost completely covered against any loss. Alternatively in an ideal scenario, he drifts to my target price a couple of times in the early rounds and still progresses to the latter stages, enabling me to guarantee a profit either way.