WGC Matchplay Update: Ogilvy can edge battle of Matchplay masters

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Having triumphed previously in matchplay events, Geoff Ogilvy and Paul Casey have both been in exemplary form in Arizona but Paul Krishnamurty believes the Australian can edge out the Englishman in the final.

If ever concrete evidence was required to show that matchplay golf is a refined art, that suits some characters much more than others, then one need look no further than the line up for this afternoon's WGC final. Whereas the wide array of big names who've never reached the latter stages of this event once again went home early, the 36-hole final will be contested by two matchplay masters.

Both have already won a World Matchplay title; Geoff Ogilvy won this event in 2006 while Paul Casey won the Wentworth version in the same year; and both have been in exemplary form. So much so that it's very hard to split them. Quite incredibly, Casey has led after every hole bar one throughout his five matches so far. He has been helped by the fact that none of his opponents have offered any serious resistance, (Ross Fisher in last night's semi played the best of any of them, and even his performance was well below the standard of previous rounds), though in fairness to Casey, he could do no more than take advantage.

Ogilvy's draw has been much tougher, and for that reason he deserves to be slight favourite at [1.84]. His first two matches were very tight, and he owed much to Shingo Katayama's implosion, but since that second round he's been quite outstanding. Ogilvy comfortably eliminated the man who had previously shown the best form of anyone; Camilo Villegas, and then stopped Rory McIlroy in his tracks in the quarter-finals. Under pressure in a tight semi-final last night, Ogilvy again found another gear to dispatch last year's runner-up Stewart Cink. That takes his record in the event up to 16 wins from 18 matches.

It's that extra gear that makes me lean towards Ogilvy in this contest. In recent months he's established himself as the leading Australian on the world stage over several high-class rivals, with victories in the Australian PGA and Mercedes Championship. A win here would be his third WGC title; a record only Tiger Woods can better. So while I expect this to be very close, Ogilvy at [1.84] is the pick.

In the play-off for third place, I'm sticking with Fisher who has served me well all week. He's in far superior form to Cink, and for my money should be clear favourite rather than the outsider of the two. In fact, I make this a much stronger bet than the final. Over the week, I'm two points up on my match bets so far, with 12 points laid out today to try and build on that small profit.

Advised Bets:

4pts Geoff Ogilvy to beat Ross Fisher @ [1.84[]
8pts Ross Fisher to beat Stewart Cink @ [2.1]