Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 February 2009 /

Rory McIlroy has taken another step towards golfing greatness but Paul Krishnamurty believes that one awesome Aussie matchplayer is about to burst his bubble. Also, an improvement in his putting makes the Big Easy a good bet and Ross Fisher bids to stay on the straight and narrow.

Yesterday's decision to concentrate solely on players in the bottom half of the draw in the outright market worked a charm.

Whereas the entire bottom half could have been backed at around [2.48] combined, now the four players left in that section equate to [2.06]. Better still, the two specific players advised; Ross Fisher and Justin Leonard at [32.0] and [23.0] respectively; both won their games. As they now meet in today's quarter-final, I'm guaranteed a semi-finalist at a luxury price.

Furthermore, Ernie Els' win over Luke Donald brought my match bet singles for the tournament back to a four point profit, leaving plenty in the bank for the weekend. Much British attention will focus on teenage sensation Rory McIlroy, who has taken another step towards golfing greatness over the past 48 hours. Rory is -9 for his last 21 holes, and on that basis a threat to anyone. If pushed to make a pick in his match though, I'd plump for 2006 champion Geoff Ogilvy. The Aussie has an awesome matchplay record, also reaching the final in 2007, and has already burst one bubble this week in the form of previously on-fire Camilo Villegas.

Nevertheless at [1.88] about Ogilvy, the odds are probably about right, and similar comments apply to tournament favourite Paul Casey at [1.68] to beat Sean O'Hair. Instead, my betting focus is on the other two quarter-finals, where I hold confident opinions.

10pts Ernie Els to beat Stewart Cink @ [1.8]

Having won the other World Matchplay title an incredible six times, there's never been any doubting Ernie's suitability to this form of the game. However as he'd never even threatened to repeat those heroics in this Stateside version, and had little recent form either, it was very hard to make a case for the Big Easy at the start of the week. That seems a long time ago now, because the shift to a new course appears to have really brought the best out in him. In post-match interviews, he's been keen to mention the improvement in his putting, which had been the prime cause of his recent misery.

Ernie's form this week is leagues ahead of his quarter-final opponent. The South African is -14 through 49 holes, whereas Cink is six shots worse off on -8, despite having played eleven more holes. As he reached last year's final, it would be dangerous to completely write off Cink, but he was in vastly superior form 12 months ago. And unlike Els, he hasn't shown many concrete signs that a miserable run stretching back over six months has come to an end.

8pts Ross Fisher to beat Justin Leonard @ [2.0]

If form over the past two days is anything to go by, the betting is completely wrong here with Fisher massively under-rated. Ross cannot have been more impressive, totalling -12 for two one-sided victories that took just 28 holes. In stark contrast, Leonard has been taken to the wire in both of his matches, with his score amounting to -5.

And just as in yesterday's game against Jim Furyk, Fisher will enjoy a massive advantage in terms of driving distance. So long as he hits it straight, this is particularly important in matchplay, as it means he'll be playing second on most holes and therefore able to respond to his opponent's position.

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