Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 February 2011 / 1

Tiger's gone but there's plenty of lively prospects teeing off on day two. Paul Krishnamurty selects the best bets...

The cavalry charge known as the first round of the World Matchplay didn't quite live up to it's usual billing as a haven for outsiders, as 22 out of 32 favourites went through, although Tiger Woods was amongst the casualties. Other big names to bite the dust included Steve Stricker and Dustin Johnson, whose defeat at the hands of Mark Wilson was one of four successful bets from five advised yesterday. There's no shortage of options to reinvest that ten unit profit today.

Firstly in the outright market, having avoided a potential match-up with Tiger, now is the ideal time to back tournament specialist Geoff Ogilvy. Instead of Woods, Ogilvy faces the none too threatening hurdle of Thomas Bjorn in order to extend his magnificent World Matchplay record to 20 wins from 23 matches. That strikes me as a much easier second round draw than any of Ogilvy's principal market rivals.

For instance, Rory McIlroy and Paul Casey are up against two of the best day one performers, in Ben Crane and Jason Day respectively. Elsewhere, Justin Rose will be no pushover for Martin Kaymer, while Lee Westwood's encounter with Nick Watney is discussed in the match bets below. I suspect that when the last-16 draw is updated tomorrow, several household names will be on their way home and those remaining will have shortened up considerably.

Another such big name is Phil Mickelson, who takes on Rickie Fowler in what will be many people's game of the day. Fowler had an outstanding matchplay record as an amateur, and reeled one of the all-time great Ryder Cup comebacks on his debut singles match. He seems ideally suited to the format, whereas Mickelson never really has for my money. Especially around this course, where waywardness usually spells big trouble, Phil is always likely to give his opponent a chance. Whoever wins will face a less daunting opponent in the next round, so Fowler could offer some trading mileage at [40.0].

Recommended bets:

Outright

2pts Geoff Ogilvy @ [14.0]
1pt Rickie Fowler @ [40.0]

Match bets

3pts JB Holmes @ [2.0] (vs Els)

The second day nap has to be JB Holmes, as his performance in beating Camilo Villegas was vastly superior to anything Ernie Els served up against Jeff Overton. Holmes only got into the event as a replacement on Monday night, but made the most of his chance with five birdies for an easy win. In stark contrast, Ernie's match was an appalling affair.

2pts Nick Watney @ [2.1] (vs Westwood)

Lee Westwood progressed with little trouble, but his match against a woefully out of sorts Henrik Stenson was another poor guide. Lee made plenty of his own mistakes, and would expect to be punished if repeating them against Watney. Whatever their rankings differences, Watney has been the better player in 2011 so far, frequently well-placed in the States, whereas Lee has yet to show anywhere near his best. He's never gone beyond this second-round stage in over a decade of trying, and is fancied to fall short again.

Day 1 Stats: +10pts

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1. dan geraghty | 25 February 2011

   great tipping paul

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