Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 November 2009 /

To back or lay Tiger Woods, that is the question for anyone contemplating the WGC-HSBC Champions Trophy odds this week. Paul Krishnamurty outlines three reasons to do either

The next fortnight offers a rare glimpse of golf's biggest box office draw for fans beyond the US and Europe, as Tiger Woods heads to China and Australia for a pair of lucrative, high-class events. Naturally, the great man dominates the betting in both, and his price will doubtless be the subject of substantial, volatile trading over the days ahead. Before the WGC-HSBC Champions Trophy starts late on Wednesdy night, golf traders face a familiar conundrum; do we back, or lay? A strong case can be made for either position, as laid out below.

Three reasons to back Woods

1) [3.05] may seem like a very short price to take pre-tournament, but it is vindicated by Tiger's 2009 returns. He has won six out of 16 strokeplay starts, suggesting the 'real' odds should be [2.66]. Moreover, outside the four majors, he has won six from 12, which equates to a 50% chance of winning.

2) For its fifth renewal, this lucrative tournament has been awarded WGC status, and Woods' record in such events is nothing short of incredible. Overall, he has won 16 out of 30 WGC events since the format was invented ten years ago. However, if you remove the WGC Matchplay, widely recognised as one of the most random events of the year, and stick solely to strokeplay, that record improves to 13 wins from 20 starts. A remarkable 65% strike-rate, equating to 'real' odds of just [1.54].

3) His recent form is impeccable. Woods has only finished outside the top-two once in his last seven individual starts, and won all five available points at the Presidents Cup. No doubt, he will take the world of beating.

Three reasons to lay Woods

1) He's failed on both previous visits to Sheshan International GC, finishing second in 2005 and again in 2006. In 2005, David Howell took him on head-to-head in the final two-ball and emerged a comfortable winner. History repeated itself the following year; when the previously unknown Y.E. Yang stunned the formbook. With the hindsight gained from Yang's win in the PGA Championship, that result looks a lot more plausible, but it does prove that this is not necessarily a course where the very best players always dominate.

2) In the past, the rough at Sheshan has been fairly tame, offering a clear advantage to the big-hitters. In other words, the type of course where Tiger excels. However, reports from the course suggest conditions will be tougher this time around. The rough has been overseeded with Rye grass and is expected to be more penal, placing a far greater emphasis on accuracy and bringing many more shorter hitters into the equation.

3) As anyone with experience of trading Tiger's price in-running will know, backing him before play starts rarely makes for comfortable viewing. Besides two exceptions in at least the past 18 months, Tiger has always traded significantly higher than [3.05] in-running. Indeed, for three of this season's six titles, he was available in double-figures at some stage. So if you're up on Wednesday night trading this price, it should pay to play a waiting game.

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