WGC day three: Aussie pair the last remaining threats to odds-on 'Good Thing' Tiger

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

[1.47] Tiger holds more value against Aussie pair than [2.0] against the entire field on Thursday, says Paul Krishnamurty

In stark contrast to Thursday's final hole disappointment, two closing birdies provided the perfect seal on a magnificent 66 from Tiger Woods, the lowest second day round at the WGC-CA Championship. With the course playing noticeably harder than on the first day, due to a combination of a rain-soaked course and a different wind direction, it was no surprise to see a small, select band of world-class long-hitters separate themselves from the rest. What had looked a competitive, bunched leaderboard has now effectively been reduced to a three-horse race.

As on the first day, Tiger drifted above [2.0] in the early stages of his round, before a pair of eagles reminded his layers what a dangerous business they're engaged in. It barely needs saying anymore, but Woods' finishing was simply magnificent today, holing every one of his 13 putts within ten foot. In this mood, its hard to see him shooting higher than a pair of 68s over the weekend, which would produce an overall total of -19. That's one short of the -20 winning score I predicted yesterday, but on reflection with the course playing harder and more bad weather on the way, I'll be surprised if anyone bar Tiger can reach that mark.

At least he has a couple of world-class challengers for company to keep things interesting. First-round leader Geoff Ogilvy produced another cracking round, a 67 after Thursday's 65, to maintain pole position. Ogilvy leads by one from Woods, though it's not quite a match just yet as Adam Scott still has claims from two further back.

Since I advised him at [22.0] yesterday, Scott has traded below [7.0] and is still shorter at [14.0]. He's still capable of winning from here, and is loving the softer conditions, but I've taken the risk out of my trade and am running him as a 'free bet' from here. I've also adopted the same strategy for Robert Karlsson, who is in a tie for 4th, but will need something extraordinary to win giving Woods a four shot head-start over the weekend.

All things considered - and I am rarely an odds-on backer - Woods looks about as good a [1.47] shot as you'll ever get. No disrespect to Ogilvy, a former US Open champion, but I get the feeling that he's produced his best two rounds of the week already. If Tiger does hit the expected 68 or better, (a lower target than both his scores so far), I expect he'll hold the final round lead and be shorter than the current quote. In fact, [1.47] against effectively two opponents looks much better value than 2.0 did against 78 on Thursday!

A word of warning about Saturday's betting. Rain has been forecast, prompting the organisers to move play forward to before midday (UK time). The leaders will go off at 2.10pm, just as the Sky coverage starts. These 3-balls could be the best place to look for betting value over what could turn out to be a gruelling weekend punctured by weather delays. In these circumstances, motivation will be all important.

Opposing Phil Mickelson when he's not in contention has proved a goldmine over the last decade or so, so he simply must be laid at around [2.7] in a high quality three-ball starting at 12.50pm against Vijay Singh and Justin Rose. Struggling with the putter and disappointing in all areas today for a two-over par 74, this has all the hallmarks of another Doral outing Mickelson will want to forget. And if Mickelson looks a non-trier at times, that certainly isn't an argument you could make against consumate professional Vijay, nor Rose who has battled hard over recent weekends when similarly off the pace.