Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 March 2010 /

Charl Schwartzel leads the way at Doral but it's early days and now may be the time to snaffle up some early value on a quartet of under-rated players

Strong winds on the opening day at Doral kept the scoring higher than usual, and looks to have put paid to the chances of several leading candidates. Though one should always be wary of writing players off after one round, the likes of Rory McIlroy, Retief Goosen and Zach Johnson will need to shoot very low today in order to retain any faint hopes. It doesn't look good for European stars Lee Westwood or Sergio Garcia either.

In total, 23 players beat par on day one, with Charl Schwartzel heading the way on -5. Given that the winds were so strong, the fact so many players still managed to shoot a good score is testimony to Doral's receptive greens. Play will start earlier than planned today in order to try and avoid forecast thunderstorms, and that should enable some low scores before the weather deteriorates.

Notably, the wind is predicted to be stronger in the afternoon, so the earlier tee time, the better. That's good news for Soren Hansen, who is faring best of my pre-tournament [100.0] picks and is in the second group out this afternoon.

Another advantage for Hansen could lie in the fact that he is drawn to play the course correct way round, rather than those who start on the 10th tee. We saw further confirmation yesterday of an old Doral trend, with the front-nine playing significantly easier than the back nine. After the par-five 12th, this course can be really tough when the wind gets up, as Robert Allenby saw yesterday when his -8 score was quickly halved over the finish.

That differential could be significant in two respects. Firstly, it enables early-starters to launch a bid for the second round lead. I think there's a low score or two out there today for somebody boosting their confidence early on. Secondly, and more importantly for in-running punters, when scoring is so different on either nine, there's a massive clue for trading purposes.

I like four trades at prices ranging from [27.0] to [65.0], which combined pays around [9.0]. Should any one of those four shorten to a couple of points below that combined mark, the plan would be to lay the entire stake back.

Hansen still looks overpriced at [48.0] given that he's only two shots off an unlikely leader. JB Holmes is another early starter, currently on that same -3 score. Huge-hitting Holmes is certainly suited to this open layout, and that power advantage can only increase once the rain has soaked this course.

My other pair are a shot further back on -2. Martin Kaymer would be at best half his [27.0] odds if the event were being played in Europe, and also has the ideal attacking game for this course. He is going to crack the States sooner or later, and this looks a good opportunity for a bang-in-form player.

Finally, though he doesn't strike me as a Doral natural, [65.0] about a classy, generally consistent player like Tim Clark is just too big.

Selections

Martin Kaymer @ [27.0]
JB Holmes @ [34.0]
Soren Hansen @ [48.0]
Tim Clark @ [65.0]

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