WGC-CA Championship Betting: Bank on two Florida residents to master Doral's tricky greens

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Zach Johnson ticks all the boxes of a likely Doral winner

"Quite simply you can't win this title without a stack of birdies and a hot putter, which places a heavy premium on the tricky task of being able to read Doral's grainy, Bermuda greens. It took Phil Mickelson over a decade to master them, and many otherwise strong candidates never seem to get going here."

Home advantage and course experience count for much in Florida and Paul Krishnamurty has identified a pair of golfers he fancies to go well at Dorwal

The venue for this week's WGC-CA Championship has been hosting an annual PGA Tour fixture for nearly half a century, and the vast bank of form collected over that period offers some useful clues. Doral's Blue Course used to be described as the 'Blue Monster', though advances in technology have rendered that moniker increasingly inappropriate. There's plenty of water to negotiate, but unless the wind blows, success at Doral requires very low scoring. Only once this century has the winning score been higher than -17.

Quite simply you can't win this title without a stack of birdies and a hot putter, which places a heavy premium on the tricky task of being able to read Doral's grainy, Bermuda greens. It took Phil Mickelson over a decade to master them, and many otherwise strong candidates never seem to get going here. Naturally, those with Florida connections enjoy a significant advantage in this respect. Since 1990, only four Doral champions weren't either born in the state or a Florida resident at the time of their victory.

In my view, focusing on players that fulfil these criteria offers the best betting strategy this week, and not just in the outright market. With the field reduced to 68 players for this WGC event, and including many that are hard to fancy on a course where they've never prospered, there must be some mileage in the top-five and top-10 markets. Here's a couple of Florida residents that should give us a good run for our money.

Jim Furyk

It is approaching three years since Furyk won the last of his 13 PGA Tour titles, which must be considered a sparse return given his tremendous consistency over the past decade and a half. That explains why layers are generally happy to take Jim on in the outright market, but the opposite mindset is required when rating his chances of landing a place.

During the last two winless seasons, Furyk has made the top-10 in over 40 per cent of his strokeplay starts and the top-five in just under a quarter of them. His odds in these place markets only very rarely reflect that impressive ratio. Doral is particularly suitable for this Florida resident and expert putter. His last nine visits have yielded one title, four top-threes and six top-10s.

Zach Johnson

Johnson has much in common with Furyk, in terms of his strong Florida connections, short-straight hitting profile and prowess on the greens. Another similarity is their consistency. Zach hasn't missed a top-25 anywhere since August, and looks a likely candidate to land a seventh PGA Tour title any time soon.

Doral could well be the venue, as top-15 finishes on four of his last five visits suggests. A repeat of his 2005 performance, when third behind Tiger and Mickelson with a competitive score of -19, could be enough this time with the big-two absent or below their best at the moment. Odds of [46.0] to win the event, and [4.6] to make the top-10, look generous on the basis of both his long-term stats and previous course form.

Advised Bets:

Outright - Zach Johnson @ [46.0]

Top-5 Finish - Jim Furyk @ [6.6]

Top-10 Finish - Jim Furyk @ [3.15]; Zach Johnson @ [4.6]